US intelligence indicates that Iran’s leadership is still largely intact and is not at risk of collapse any time soon after nearly two weeks of relentless US and Israeli bombardment, according to three sources familiar with the matter who spoke to Reuters, reports Turkiye Today on Thursday.

A ‘multitude’ of intelligence reports provide ‘consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger’ of collapse and ‘retains control of the Iranian public,’ said one of the sources.

The latest report was completed within the last few days.

The intelligence reporting underscores the cohesion of Iran’s clerical leadership despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, the first day of the US and Israeli strikes.

Israeli officials in closed discussions also have acknowledged ‘there is no certainty the war will lead to the clerical government’s collapse,’ a senior Israeli official told Reuters.

The sources stressed that the situation on the ground is fluid and that the dynamics inside Iran could change.

With political pressure building over soaring oil costs, US president Donald Trump has suggested he will end the biggest US military operation since 2003 ‘soon.’ But finding an acceptable end to the war could be difficult if Iran’s hardline leaders remain firmly entrenched.

Since launching their war, the US and Israel have struck a range of Iranian targets, including air defences, nuclear sites, and members of the senior leadership.

The Trump administration has given varying reasons for the war. In announcing the beginning of the US operation, Trump urged Iranians to ‘take over your government,’ but top aides have since denied that the objective was to oust Iran’s leadership.

In addition to Khamenei, the strikes have killed dozens of senior officials and some of the highest-ranking commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Still, the US intelligence reports indicate that the IRGC and the interim leaders who assumed power after Khamenei’s death retain control of the country.

The Assembly of Experts, a group of senior Shia clerics, declared Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, the new supreme leader.

‘Israel has no intention of allowing any remnants of the former government to stay intact,’ said a fourth source familiar with the matter.

It is unclear how the current US-Israeli military campaign would topple the government.

A ground offensive would be required to allow regime change. ‘It would likely require a ground offensive that would allow people inside Iran to safely protest in the streets,’ said the source. The Trump administration has not ruled out sending US troops into Iran.

A classified National Intelligence Council report completed March 7 concluded that even a large-scale US military offensive would be unlikely to overthrow Iran’s military and clerical power structure, according to The Washington Post, citing three sources familiar with the classified document.

The assessment undercuts Trump’s assertion that he could ‘clean out’ Iran’s leadership and install a preferred successor, indicating such an outcome would be far from certain.

The National Intelligence Council comprises senior analysts responsible for producing classified assessments that reflect the consensus of all 18 US intelligence agencies.

The intelligence assessment indicated that even if Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei were killed, the country’s military and clerical leadership would likely follow established succession mechanisms to preserve the existing power structure.

Sources said it was ‘unlikely’ that Iran’s fragmented opposition would be able to seize power.

Reuters reported last week that Iranian Kurdish militias based in neighbouring Iraq consulted with the US about how and whether to attack Iran’s security forces in the western part of the country.

Recent US intelligence reports have cast doubt on the ability of the Iranian Kurdish groups to sustain a fight against Iranian security services, according to two sources familiar with those assessments.

The intelligence indicates that the groups lack the firepower and numbers.

The Iranian Kurdish groups have in recent days asked senior officials in Washington and US lawmakers for the US to provide them with weapons and armoured vehicles, according to another person familiar with the matter. But Trump said Saturday that he had ruled out having the Iranian Kurdish groups go into Iran.

Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian said Wednesday the only way to end the on-going conflict between the US, Israel and Iran is through recognising his country’s ‘legitimate rights’ and firm international guarantees against ‘future aggression.’

In a post on X, Pezeshkian said he spoke to leaders of Russia and Pakistan. ‘I reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to peace in the region. The only way to end this war — ignited by the Zionist regime & US — is recognising Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int’l guarantees against future aggression,’ he added.