A cup of tea and a bun is one of the cheapest ways for Dhaka’s rickshaw pullers, van drivers and day labourers to stave off hunger between shifts.
From Saturday, even that modest meal is set to cost more.
Bangladesh’s bakery owners are raising the prices of bread, cakes and biscuits — or reducing their size — as the cost of flour, sugar, cooking oil, and shortening climbs sharply.
They say higher electricity costs and a shortage of pipeline gas are adding to the pressure, forcing some bakeries to switch to more expensive LPG.
For low-income customers already struggling with the cost of everyday essentials, the increase is another squeeze.
At a pavement tea stall beside Shia Masjid (mosque) in Mohammadpur, owner Rahmatullah, who is in his 60s, said his supplier had already warned him of higher prices.
“People have a bun dipped in tea,” he told bdnews24.com. “Now even that is going to cost more. The supplier has told us we will have to pay extra from Saturday.”
He fears an increase of at least Tk 5 per item could put off customers — and lead to arguments when they discover the new price after eating.
“Our customers will fall,” he said.
Small Sellers Fear Losing Customers
Ripon Sheikh buys bakery products from Chawkbazar and sells them from a van through neighbourhoods in Rayerbazar.
He too is worried.
“We work on a very small margin,” he said. “We sell a little cheaper than shops. At the moment, after selling at the existing price, something is left for us.”
If bakeries raise wholesale prices, he will have to follow.
“Then people may not want to buy from us. We will suffer badly.”
Ripon sells dry cakes, biscuits and other bakery goods for around Tk 200 a kilogram.
He said if the wholesale price rose by Tk 20 a kilogram, he might have to charge at least Tk 250 to retain a margin of Tk 20-Tk 30.
“If even that margin disappears, after sweating all day and pushing this van around, there will be nothing left for us.”
He wants the government to rein in the prices of basic ingredients.
“If flour and sugar go up, that is not the bakery’s fault,” he said.
Flour Up By About A Third
Flour, cooking oil, dalda or vegetable shortening, and sugar are among the main ingredients used in buns, bread, biscuits, and confectionery.
All have become more expensive.
Monir Khan, who owns a bakery in Bosila, said his costs had surged.
“Everything costs much more than before,” he said. “A sack of flour now costs Tk 3,200. Two months ago, I bought it for Tk 2,400.”
Sales, meanwhile, are falling.
“What can people do?” he said. “When the price of everything rises, bakery sales fall too. People think about other food only after they have managed to eat their rice.”
At Mohammadpur Town Hall market, a 50kg sack of flour is selling for around Tk 3,100, compared with Tk 2,300 a year ago.
A 50kg sack of sugar now costs about Tk 5,500, up by Tk 1,000-Tk 1,200 over the year.
A 185kg drum of soybean oil has risen by about Tk 5,000 to between Tk 34,500 and Tk 35,000.
A 16kg carton of dalda has increased by about Tk 800 to between Tk 3,500 and Tk 4,000, depending on quality.
Yeast and other ingredients have also become more expensive.
Then there is energy.
With pipeline gas unavailable or unreliable in many places, bakeries are turning to LPG cylinders, raising production costs. Power shortages can also leave workers idle and production lines disrupted.
Prices Rise, Portions Shrink
The Bangladesh Bread, Biscuit and Confectionery Manufacturers Association has announced price adjustments from Saturday.
Not every product will simply become more expensive.
For cheaper items, manufacturers plan to reduce weight while keeping the price unchanged. More expensive products will see outright price rises.
The industry last imposed a major increase in June 2022, when everyday bakery products including bread, biscuits and cakes rose by between 20 percent and 40 percent — described at the time as the biggest increase in the sector’s history.
Association President Mohammad Jalal Uddin says this round will be more limited.
“We have never said prices will rise by 20 percent,” he said. “Given the business reality, owners have collectively decided on a modest adjustment.”
His family has been in the bakery business for generations in Dhaka’s Narinda.
Products currently priced at Tk 40 or Tk 50 could rise by Tk 10-Tk 15, he said, while a Tk 12 cake could cost Tk 15.
For the cheapest buns, however, the association plans to reduce size rather than increase the Tk 10 price.
“These are eaten by working people, so we are keeping the price at Tk 10,” Jalal said.
The association says a round bun selling for Tk 10 currently weighs around 40g. That will fall by about 5g.
A loaf now weighing 400g and selling for Tk 50-Tk 60 may shrink to between 320g and 350g if the price remains unchanged.
If bakeries retain the 400g weight, the price could rise by Tk 5-Tk 10.
Jalal said the industry had little room to absorb further increases.
“In the past six months, flour has gone from Tk 2,500 a sack to Tk 3,200,” he said. “Today alone it has gone up another Tk 300 a sack. Sugar has risen. The government has announced increases in oil prices.”
The association estimates there are about 7,000 small bakeries across Bangladesh, more than 700 of them in Dhaka.
It claims around two million people are directly or indirectly connected to the sector.
Jalal warned that another surge in raw-material costs could leave bakeries unable to raise retail prices further.
“There is no pipeline gas, so we have to use LPG,” he said. “Power problems mean we cannot produce properly. Workers have to sit idle. That increases costs too.”
‘Where Are We Supposed To Go?’
Back at Rahmatullah’s tea stall in Mohammadpur, rickshaw-puller Amin was contemplating what the change would mean for him.
After several trips, he needs something to eat. Usually that means tea with a bun or one or two pieces of cake.
“It already costs Tk 30-Tk 40 each time,” he said. “If prices go up, that becomes Tk 50.”
Then came the question at the heart of the problem.
“If everything keeps getting more expensive, where are we supposed to go? And if I don’t put something in my stomach, how am I supposed to pull a rickshaw?”
Not everyone accepts the bakery industry’s argument.
Manik, who owns a tea stall in Mahakhali, believes the increase is unjustified.
He estimates that a 50g bun selling for Tk 10 costs about Tk 2.50 to produce and is supplied by bakeries for around Tk 5.
“They are still making a 50% margin,” he claimed. “So why should the price go up?”
Is the Rise Excessive?
AHM Shafiquzzaman, president of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB), does not regard a rise in bakery prices as entirely unexpected.
Almost every major input used by bakeries has become more expensive, he said.
Businesses therefore face a choice: raise prices or stop production.
“The question is whether they are increasing prices unreasonably,” he said.
Shafiquzzaman, a former director general of the Directorate of National Consumer Rights Protection, argues that the wider problem lies in the failure to contain the cost of essential goods.
If basic prices are not brought under control, he said, individual businesses will continue raising their own prices and consumers will bear the consequences.
Official figures nevertheless suggest inflation has been easing.
The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics data show point-to-point inflation was 8.32 percent in July, the first month of the current financial year.
It eased to 8.26 percent in August, its lowest level in 10 months.
Shafiquzzaman says those numbers do not match what consumers are encountering in the market.
“Small businesses are having to increase their prices because the cost of goods has risen,” he said. “Everything in the market is more expensive.”
He also criticised higher electricity prices for adding to business costs.
“And yet BBS says inflation has come down,” he said. “You do not see that reflected in the market.”
For Amin, the rickshaw-puller, such arguments over percentages are remote.
What matters is simpler.
The bun, the cake and the cup of tea he buys between fares are about to take a little more out of his daily earnings.
And there is little left to spare.
