Dr Muhammad Yunus faces a great struggle to maintain the political reforms in Bangladesh; among these is resistance of the existing institutions such as the military and bureaucracy, public distrust due to a perceived lack of inclusion in the reforms process, and a proposed referendum that will delay the elections. Although he has been able to bring 25 political parties under his July National Charter umbrella which espouses democratic values, critics believe his scheme did not take into consideration other important socioeconomic aspects like poverty and unemployment amongst the youths.
Yunus will also have to deal with international expectations, particularly those of the observers such as the European Union, and ensure that the reforms are transparently executed and widely embraced so as to avoid backsliding and actually re-freeze the change to ensure long-term stability.
The current political reform could be discussed within the frames of the Change Process Model developed by Lewin. It presents three critical phases-Unfreeze, Change and Refreeze, which help organisations to make successful transitions.
Unfreeze stage is a preparatory stage whereby one would challenge the status quo and create awareness on the requirement to change, and this will help to alleviate resistance. After having preparedness, the Change stage is introduced whereby new systems, behaviours, or structures are introduced with the help of training and clear communication to enable its adoption. Lastly, Refreeze stage aims at stabilising the organisation by reinforcing the newly introduced practices, updating policies, and adopting changes into the organisational culture so that it does not revert. The model is well-received due to its simplicity and practicality, but critics believe it can simplify the complex and dynamic change processes.
The reform dialogue that happened in Bangladesh over almost one and a half years and involved key political stakeholders, the civil society and international observers closely resembled the Unfreeze stage of the Change Process Model of Lewin. This stage concerns breaking down the status quo and getting the system ready to change-and in the case of Bangladesh, the breakdown was scathing.
The removal of the previous Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, after a 36-day nationwide protest movement that was initiated by the students and the common people, brought a tectonic change in the political sphere of the country.
The event of her going, interspersed with a much-discussed helicopter flight to India, was a new beginning which dislodged old power bases and brought people into action to demand change. The following reform debate was used to confront the political conventions over the years, which resulted in consensus amongst the political parties, as well as establish a mutual understanding of necessity of democratic renewal.
Similar to the Unfreeze stage in the Lewin model, in which resistance is prone to be dismantled and a state of readiness established, the process of reform in Bangladesh has been characterised by the need to loosen the hold of authoritarianism and create a space for the new forms of governance. This preparation stage was to provide an emotional and institutional preparation before the actual Change and Refreeze phases.
The July Charter in Bangladesh was conceived as a groundbreaking document-as a consensus-based national framework that was to rebrand the political scene in the country. It was not only to lead the governance mechanisms, but also to change the road to political power in abandoning the old mode of authoritarianism practices towards an inclusive and democratic mode.
This Charter came as the result of almost 18 months of intense negotiations with 25 political parties, civil society actors and reform advocates, and its release was supposed to open the door to the next stage of the Lewin model-the Change, where the new systems and behaviours are officially manifested.
However, the optimism surrounding its unveiling was tempered by a serious holdup: the nonparticipation of several key players, most markedly the National Consensus Party (NCP), in the signing ceremony. Their absence raised genuine concerns about the durability of the consensus, signalling that glitches still remain amongst the July contenders. This abstention might not be merely a procedural hitch-it was an alarm bell warning that the July bird failed to bring all her chicks under her stretched wings. If not corrected in due course, it may affect the last phase of the change process, i.e., Refreezing.
The most critical stage in Bangladesh's ongoing political alteration is unquestionably the "Refreeze" stage-where the reform, regardless of its form and implication, must be executed and also institutionalised to become a de facto part of the nation's political system. This step will determine whether the July Charter, which will be the culmination of months of consensus-making and dialogue, will become a political doctrine and not a mere symbolic accord.
The challenge lies not only in operationalising its values-through electoral reforms, policy shifts, and constitutional updates-but also in implanting them into the political culture of the country so that they sustain and are practised in the long run.
However, the difficulty lies in operationalising its principles in terms of electoral reforms, policy changes and constitutional amendments, and by introducing them into the political culture in a manner that they survive the present transitional moment.
Sparks of controversy have already begun in the political sphere, especially with the idea of holding a national referendum which would either approve the results of the Charter or not. Although to some the referendum is being seen as a democratic mechanism of giving the Charter some legitimacy, others worry that the referendum may have the effect of postponing elections or rekindling divisions.
The effectiveness of the Refreeze step will be dependent on participation, civic trust and the capacity of institutions to live the spirit of the Charter-not the text. In the absence of these, there is a threat that the process of reform can backfire and the country will start regressing.
The humane charisma and moral stature of Dr Muhammad Yunus are increasingly relied upon to play a unifying role in this frail political transition. He has the impeccable credibility of a Nobel Laureate and international activist of social justice, which cuts across partisan lines.
In a country that has been shattered and divided over decades of zero-sum politics, the leadership of Yunus is viewed as the force that will help unite the disjointed political opinions and steer Bangladesh to an elective process that is participatory. His skill in creating a discussion, gaining consensus, and remaining neutral is not only essential when it comes to having credible polls but also when it comes to a peaceful and smooth transition of power to a democratic government.
Yunus has less to do with authority in the current process of leading the country through the stage of reform known as Refreeze, but rather trust-that he can guide the process with integrity, inclusivity, and vision of a democratic future that is inclusive of all the Bangladeshis. Bangladesh has a genuine opportunity to make this a legacy with the proper leadership, an inclusive discussion and a promise to democracy. We should continue watching, learning and believing. Good Luck, Dr Mohammad Yunus!
The author teaches at North South University. sadrul.huda@northsouth.edu
