The first light of dawn hits the colossal concrete dome of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, a $12.65 billion titan rising from the banks of the Padma. This scene is a potent symbol of Bangladesh's ambition for energy sovereignty. Yet, in the quiet offices of Dhaka's financial district, a different drama unfolds -- one of urgent negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to secure another tranche of a $4.7bn bailout.
This is the paradox of modern Bangladesh: Building a future with one strategic partner by day, while kneeling before the altar of a Western financial order by night.
The recent shock of a Tk 26,181 crore increase in Rooppur's projected cost, solely due to exchange rate adjustments, is a brutal wake-up call. It is not just a budgetary line item; it is a flashing warning sign of a deeper, more dangerous trap. Bangladesh is caught between the hammer of a strategic, Russian-financed megaproject and the anvil of a dollar-dependent global system it does not control. Navigating this requires more than financial juggling; it demands a fundamental rethinking of our place in a fracturing world.
The weight of the reactor
The numbers tell a story of vulnerability. The Rooppur plant, funded by an $11.38bn Russian loan, was initially estimated to cost Tk 113,092.91 crore. Today, that figure has ballooned to Tk 139,274.17 crore. The dollar value of the loan is fixed, but its weight in taka is crushingly variable, having already jumped from Tk 91,040 crore to Tk 116,799 crore. The planning assumption for future payments is a sobering Tk 122 per dollar.
This currency volatility hits while the nation is under the strict regimen of an IMF program. The deal, secured in 2023 as foreign reserves plummeted, demands fiscal austerity, subsidy cuts, and a flexible exchange rate. These very conditions, designed to stabilize the macroeconomy, exacerbate the local-currency cost of foreign debt like Rooppur's. We are essentially taking medicine that makes the primary wound more painful. Our reserves, which soared to $48bn in 2021, have been on a rollercoaster, dipping to $20bn and struggling to recover consistently. Every dollar earmarked for Rooppur's loan service is a dollar not available for stabilizing the taka, importing essentials, or investing in our people.
Sanctions, sovereignty, and hypocrisy
Rooppur is more than a power plant; it is a geopolitical statement. Its twin reactors, financed and built by Russia's Rosatom, promise to supply 10% of our electricity with stable, low-carbon energy. This is a direct answer to the volatile, dollar-priced liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, where spot prices famously spiked to $38 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) following the Ukraine war. While Europe scrambled for LNG and even reignited coal plants, Bangladesh was securing a decades-long energy lifeline.
Yet, this strategic move comes with immediate costs. US sanctions on Russian banks have severed access to the dollar-based SWIFT system for transactions. Bangladesh's pragmatic response -- to pay Russia in Chinese yuan via China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) -- is a masterclass in realpolitik. It is also a glaring indictment of the system. We are forced to use a third country's currency and financial infrastructure to settle a bilateral deal because the dominant currency and its governance have been weaponized.
The irony is thick. Western nations lecture on a “rules-based order” while their policies create the very instability they condemn. They impose sanctions that force adaptive measures like yuan payments, then risk penalizing those adaptations. This is not a level playing field; it is a maze where the rules change based on the architect's interest.
The path not yet taken
While we navigate this maze, the world's financial geography is being redrawn. The BRICS bloc, through its New Development Bank (NDB), has already approved over $30bn for infrastructure projects in the Global South. A key objective is to promote financial autonomy, with about 30% of this funding disbursed in non-dollar currencies. Platforms like the BRICS Bridge and China's CIPS are piloting digital and local currency settlements to bypass the dollar entirely.
Where is Bangladesh in this quiet revolution? Largely on the sidelines, hesitant and watching. We have an application with BRICS but fear the potential backlash from Washington more than we crave the benefits of multipolar finance. This is the core of our strategic dissonance. We have the courage to partner with a sanctioned Russia for our most critical infrastructure but lack the confidence to fully engage with the emerging financial architectures that could liberate us from dollar dependency.
The result is a painful asymmetry. We bear the geopolitical risk of the Russian partnership but fail to capture the strategic reward of financial diversification. The NDB has funded projects worldwide, but Bangladesh's share of this alternative financing remains minuscule compared to its needs. We remain tethered to the IMF, an institution where G7 nations hold disproportionate voting power, despite the declining share of the West in the global economy.
Charting a sovereign course
The way out is not to abandon Rooppur or the IMF -- both are current realities. The solution is to leverage our position to build a more sovereign, resilient future. This requires a clear-eyed, multi-pronged strategy:
First, we must negotiate from strength, not weakness. The project delays are a liability for Russia as well. Bangladesh should formally seek a renegotiation of the loan terms -- extending the grace period for principal repayment, which currently starts in 2028, and locking in favourable exchange rate corridors for future disbursements. Our credible use of yuan payments via CIPS proves we are a reliable but pragmatic partner who navigates external constraints.
Second, we must aggressively diversify our financial partnerships. Observer or partner status in BRICS+ frameworks should be a top diplomatic priority. This is not about choosing sides, but about accessing options. We must actively court the New Development Bank for financing complementary energy and infrastructure projects, which would free up other fiscal resources. Engaging with initiatives for local currency trade, even starting with pilot projects for bilateral trade with India or China, is essential to reduce our structural exposure to the dollar.
Third, we must monetize our energy sovereignty. Once operational, Rooppur will displace billions of dollars in volatile fossil fuel imports. These foreign exchange savings must be explicitly captured and channeled into a dedicated sovereign wealth or debt-servicing fund. This creates a direct, virtuous loop where the plant's strategic value pays for its own cost and builds a buffer for the nation.
The Rooppur debt is a symptom, not the disease. The disease is an over-reliance on a single, weaponizable financial system. Bangladesh stands at a historic crossroads. We can continue to be a passive subject of global financial storms, where a shift in the dollar-taka rate can erase years of development gains. Or, we can use the leverage of our economy, our strategic projects, and our geographic importance to become an active architect of our own financial resilience.
The reactors at Rooppur will soon light our homes. The question is whether we have the vision to let that light illuminate a path to true economic sovereignty. The choice is between perpetual vulnerability and pragmatic, sovereign power. For the sake of the next generation, we must choose the latter.
Zakir Kibria is a Bangladeshi writer, policy analyst and entrepreneur based in Kathmandu, Nepal. His email address is [email protected].
