I cannot recall another British parliamentary by-election in recent years that generated such intense media attention. Since prominent Labour figure Andy Burnham won the Makerfield contest in north-west England on June 18, much of the British press has been consumed with analysing its implications, at times giving it greater prominence than major international developments such as the US-Iran peace agreement. Is this media frenzy an overreaction? Perhaps not. Many commentators believe the result represents far more than the election of a new MP.
Burnham’s decisive victory has reignited speculation about the durability of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership. More significantly, it has fuelled expectations within parts of the Labour movement that the party may already have found its next leader—and perhaps a future prime minister capable of confronting Nigel Farage more effectively than the current leadership.
As Farage’s hard-right, anti-immigration Reform UK continues its rapid rise, Burnham is increasingly portrayed as the only Labour politician capable of containing the populist wave threatening to reshape British politics, particularly the debate around immigration. Many Labour MPs reportedly view the result as more than a local electoral success; they see it as a referendum on Starmer’s leadership style and electoral strategy.
Burnham, the long-serving mayor of Greater Manchester, secured around 55 percent of the vote in what many observers regarded as a high-profile political test. Particularly striking was the fact that Reform UK had performed strongly in the same area during local elections only weeks earlier. Burnham’s success demonstrated an ability to reconnect with working-class voters whom Labour has struggled to retain across parts of England.
The result has inevitably increased pressure on Prime Minister Starmer. Several British newspapers and international agencies have argued that Burnham’s victory strengthens his position as a potential future leadership contender. Less than two years after returning Labour to power with a landslide victory, Starmer now faces growing unease within sections of his own party over its direction and political messaging.
The speed with which Starmer’s popularity declined has surprised many observers. After winning the 2024 general election, his government faced criticism over difficult economic decisions, controversial welfare reforms, and sluggish economic growth. Labour’s concerns were compounded by disappointing performances in May’s local elections, where the party lost ground in several traditional working-class areas despite remaining strong in many urban centres. Reform UK made significant advances by capitalising on public concerns over immigration, the cost of living and dissatisfaction with mainstream politics.
Those setbacks reignited debate within Labour over whether Starmer’s cautious, technocratic style is sufficient to counter Reform’s populist appeal. Many activists and MPs have argued that the party needs a more charismatic figure capable of reconnecting with disillusioned grassroots supporters while winning back voters drifting towards Nigel Farage. Burnham’s performance in Makerfield has strengthened that argument.
Labour had reportedly trailed Reform significantly— by as much as 20 points—in the area’s recent local elections. Yet, Burnham succeeded in reversing the momentum within weeks and secured a convincing victory. For many within Labour, the result offers hope that the party can still recover despite currently trailing Reform in several national opinion polls. One survey, conducted by More in Common, suggested Labour could receive a substantial boost, by up to eight points, under Burnham’s leadership, potentially overtaking Reform UK in national voting intention.
Starmer has given no indication yet that he intends to step down, although things may change fast, as some British media outlets have indicated. Nevertheless, signs of frustration among sections of Labour’s parliamentary party are becoming increasingly visible, and Burnham’s growing popularity is likely to encourage further debate about the party’s future direction.
Unlike many senior Labour politicians associated primarily with Westminster, Burnham has spent nearly a decade building his reputation as Mayor of Greater Manchester. During the Covid pandemic, he won national recognition by publicly challenging Boris Johnson’s government over financial support for regional lockdowns. Since then, he has cultivated an image as a champion of England’s regions, arguing that political power and economic investment should be more evenly distributed beyond London.
Ideologically, Burnham occupies Labour’s traditional left-of-centre space but is widely regarded as more pragmatic than Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. He advocates stronger public services, greater state investment, expanded devolution, workers’ rights and social justice while also attempting to appeal to culturally conservative working-class communities. Many analysts place him somewhere between Tony Blair’s centrist New Labour and Corbyn’s more radical economic agenda.
This positioning may prove politically advantageous. Burnham is viewed by many Labour members as progressive enough to unite the party’s left and centre while also possessing the communication skills needed to compete with Farage among economically frustrated and culturally anxious voters.
On immigration, Burnham has sought a more balanced approach than either Labour’s national leadership or Reform UK. As Mayor of Greater Manchester, he has promoted social cohesion while acknowledging public concerns over border management, housing and public services. Unlike Reform UK’s more confrontational rhetoric on immigration and Islam, Burnham has consistently argued that immigration should be managed fairly without stigmatising migrants or undermining Britain’s multicultural identity.
That approach has made him an attractive figure for many ethnic minority communities, including British Bangladeshis, who are uneasy about the rise of identity-based anti-immigrant and anti-Islam politics while also recognising the need for credible policies on border control and integration.
Burnham previously held several cabinet positions under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. However, it is his record as Mayor of Greater Manchester that has convinced many Labour supporters he may offer the party its strongest chance of resisting Reform UK’s advance.
Whether he ultimately reaches Downing Street remains impossible to predict. Yet after Makerfield, Andy Burnham has undoubtedly moved from being England’s most influential regional politician to one of the most closely watched figures in British politics.
Shakeel Anwar is a former journalist at the BBC.
Views expressed in this article are the author's own.
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