The country stands on the edge of a difficult summer as global tremors from the war on Iran ripple through its energy lifelines, stoking fears of blackouts as heat waves loom.
Despite official assurances, stress in the energy sector is evident: long petrol queues, gas shortages affecting fertiliser output, and a volatile LPG market, even at record-high prices.
In the power sector, the gas supply crunch and disruptions in production at major coal-fired plants have forced officials to forecast load shedding of around 2,000 megawatts (MW) during peak hours, which could translate into two to three hours of outages nationwide.
In response, the government is weighing a slew of measures to reduce electricity consumption, particularly during evening peak hours.
Prime Minister Tarique Rahman has called for public cooperation as a series of high-level meetings continues to assess the evolving situation.
Power, Energy, and Mineral Resources Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood Tuku yesterday hinted at imminent power cuts during a meeting with leaders of the Bangladesh Shop Owners’ Association at the Bidyut Bhaban to discuss a directive to close shops by 6:00pm.
According to sources present, the minister said global energy disruptions have squeezed gas supply, dragging down electricity generation and heightening the risk of load shedding.
“Gas supply has fallen, and as a result electricity generation is also declining, increasing the risk of load shedding,” a source quoted him as saying.
Bangladesh’s power generation remains heavily reliant on imported gas, coal, and furnace oil, leaving it exposed to global shocks.
Currently, around 920MMcfd (million cubic feet per day) of gas is being supplied to the power sector, producing about 5,200MW of electricity daily.
However, an internal analysis by the Power Development Board (PDB) suggests if supply drops below 800MMcfd, output could fall under 4,500MW.
Even if other fuel supplies remain stable, total electricity generation would reach around 16,200MW -- well short of the projected peak demand of 18,500MW during April-May, the PDB analysis showed.
“If there is any disruption in fuel supply, the generation plan could fall short. Coal is largely imported, and a portion of gas is also imported, making supply stability crucial,” said Md Zahurul Islam, member (generation) of PDB.
“We may not receive the full 900-950MMcfd of gas that was expected for April-May,” he said, adding that the purchase of LNG from the spot market may help recover some of the shortfall if the shipments arrive on schedule.
He also said that electricity demand will depend on weather conditions as well. “If rainfall continues and temperatures remain moderate, the pressure on the power system may stay manageable.”
As of yesterday, the country received 14,900MW of electricity against a demand for 15,700MW.
Typically, a 1,000MW shortfall results in one to one and a half hours of nationwide load shedding.
However, past patterns, particularly during the 2022 crisis, suggest a stark urban-rural divide, with outages stretching to three to four hours in rural areas while one to two hours in the capital.
Since early March, when the power minister first warned of possible shortages, up to 500MW of load shedding had been introduced. It eased during the extended Eid holidays due to lower demand, but is now rising again.
The situation is further complicated by mounting dues to furnace oil-based power plants, amounting to around Tk 14,000 crore. Operators have warned they may not sustain production unless payments are cleared, raising the risk of further supply cuts.
Adding to the strain, the Bangladesh Meteorological Department has forecast multiple heatwaves in April, with temperatures nearing 40°C, which will likely push electricity demand sharply higher.
BUSINESSES PUSH BACK
At yesterday’s meeting, business leaders urged the government to allow shops to remain open until 8:00pm. The minister rejected the proposal, insisting that the cabinet’s directive to close by 6:00pm must be followed for now.
“Observe the next three months,” he said. “Decisions regarding this directive may be reviewed ahead of Pahela Baishakh and Eid-ul-Azha. But for now, you must comply with the cabinet’s decision.”
He emphasised that the burden of conservation is being shared. Fuel allocation for official transport has been cut by 70 percent, carpooling is being encouraged, and office hours have been shortened. A decision on holding half of the classes online every week at educational institutions is expected today.
“If people know shops close at 6:00pm, they will adjust their shopping habits accordingly, just as they do with bank hours,” the minister argued, adding that proposals would be discussed with the prime minister.
Essential services such as pharmacies and food outlets may remain open under special consideration.
Business leaders, however, argued that markets are being unfairly targeted.
They claimed electricity consumption in many markets is lower than in residential buildings and other institutions, yet businesses face restrictive measures.
They warned that early closures could leave commercial areas dark, increasing security risks, and called instead for targeted action against high-consumption sectors.
Their proposals include keeping shop hours from 11:00am to 8:00pm, and action against illegal electricity connections, particularly unauthorised charging of battery-powered rickshaws.
They suggested restricting fuel supply to high-capacity private vehicles above 1,800–2,000cc, and introducing an odd-even vehicle system -- where vehicles with odd-numbered plates operate on odd-numbered dates, while even-numbered plates operate on even-numbered dates.
They also noted that businesses are still recovering from losses linked to the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, and may struggle to absorb another shock.
Md Helal Uddin, president of Bangladesh Shop Owners’ Association, told The Daily Star that despite their objections, business leaders said they would comply with the 6:00pm closure order while continuing to push for revisions.
According to a source, the minister said, “The government understands the concerns and sentiments of the business community.
“However, the current circumstances have necessitated decisions that apply to everyone.”
FERTLISER SQUEEZE
Gas shortages have already forced five of the country’s six fertiliser factories to remain shut for the past month, raising concerns ahead of irrigation during the Aus season when early summer rice is sown in March-April and harvested in July-August.
Under current plans, the Shahjalal Fertiliser Company Ltd, operational over the past month with around 40MMcfd gas supply, will be shut, while the Ghorashal-Palas Urea factory is set to resume operations this month, requiring about 72MMcfd.
This shift alone could divert an additional 30MMcfd of gas away from the power sector.
From next month, multinational KAFCO is also expected to resume operations, which would require about 60MMcfd of gas for fertiliser production -- further tightening supply for power.
LPG MARKET VOLATILE
The LPG market remains unstable despite repeated price adjustments.
In Dhaka, a 12kg cylinder was selling for no less than Tk 2,000 yesterday, with some retailers charging up to Tk 2,100.
Consumers continue to face difficulties, raising concerns about affordability and supply stability.
