Dhaka has long expanded faster than it has planned. Wetlands have been filled, low-lying areas built over, and high-rises have been raised that may not withstand a major earthquake. In the final instalment of a six-part series, Star examines whether Bangladesh is ready to face a major quake despite years of studies, investments, and preparedness efforts.
Despite being an earthquake-prone country, Bangladesh remains poorly prepared for a major seismic event, experts warn.
They say a high-magnitude earthquake -- particularly in Dhaka -- could cause catastrophic damage because of weak infrastructure, limited preparedness, and the lack of an effective post-disaster response plan.
Prof Mehedi Ahmed Ansary of Buet’s Civil Engineering Department said historical trends suggest magnitude-7 earthquakes recur every 100 to 125 years, while magnitude-8 quakes occur every 250 to 300 years in Bangladesh and the surrounding region.
“There has been no major quake in this area for the past 100 years,” Ansary told The Daily Star. “Based on that trend, a major event could be imminent. I believe the magnitude-5.7 Narsingdi earthquake in November last year was one of those foreshocks -- smaller quakes that occur before a larger one.”
Prof Munaz Ahmed Noor, vice-president of Bangladesh Earthquake Society, said, “We always assumed major quakes would originate from the Madhupur Fault, but the Narsingdi earthquake showed that magnitude-5 or magnitude-6 earthquakes can originate much closer to the city. A magnitude-6 quake could spell disaster for Dhaka.”
The Madhupur Fault lies about 60 kilometres from the capital.
Prof Munaz said shallow earthquakes, such as the one in Narsingdi, are common in Bangladesh.
“These quakes occur close to the surface, so seismic energy reaches the ground with greater intensity, causing more damage to structures.”
Historical records show Bangladesh and the surrounding region have experienced several major earthquakes across the centuries. These include the 1762 Arakan (Chattogram-Arakan coast) earthquake (estimated magnitude 8.5-8.8), the 1869 Cachar earthquake near the Jaintia Hills-Sylhet region (7.5), the 1885 Bengal (Manikganj) earthquake (7.1), the 1897 Great Indian (Assam) earthquake (8.2-8.3), the 1918 Sreemangal earthquake (7.6), the 1930 Dhubri (Assam) earthquake (7.1), the 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake (8.0), and the 1950 Assam earthquake (8.6).
Despite the risk, experts say Bangladesh has yet to implement a comprehensive earthquake preparedness strategy.
Although contingency planning began years ago, major cities still lack trained volunteer forces, regular drills, and sustained public awareness programmes. City corporations have no dedicated earthquake preparedness units, while the government’s capacity for seismic risk assessment remains limited.
After waiting nearly 20 months, the Urban Safety and Resilience Institute (USRI), established under the World Bank-funded Bangladesh Urban Resilience Project, received government approval at the end of the previous administration’s tenure. However, it has yet to become operational because the required manpower has not been recruited.
The Tk 568 crore project, launched about two years ago to assess the seismic vulnerability of buildings, included construction of a 10-storey facility in Mohakhali and procurement of advanced testing equipment from Europe and the UK.
The institute houses 25 types of sophisticated equipment, including cyclic and universal testing machines, cross-hole and tri-axial systems, a terrestrial laser scanner, parallel seismic instruments, and a pile integrity tester. The equipment can assess soil strength, determine material quality, and even identify the number of reinforcing bars in structural beams.
Yet the facility remains locked and unused.
A Rajuk official, requesting anonymity, said Bangladesh has spent years studying seismic risks but has made little progress in turning research into action.
“Under the Urban Resilience Project, more than 3,200 buildings were assessed. A dedicated office was established, laboratories were built, and sophisticated equipment was procured. The World Bank invested hundreds of crores of taka, but the facilities and equipment are now lying idle,” he said.
“If the institute had become operational on time, over 10,000 buildings in Dhaka could have been assessed by now.”
He said the institute has already been approved, and experienced professionals now need to be appointed.
“This is highly specialised work that ordinary engineers cannot carry out.”
Without qualified experts and a functioning institute, years of investment and valuable equipment could go to waste, he warned, stressing the need to move beyond studies and implement practical earthquake risk-reduction measures.
Contacted on July 22, Rajuk Chairman Reazul Islam said a meeting would be held the following day to discuss operationalising the institute.
He said an executive director had already been appointed and temporary manpower arrangements had been made.
“We hope the institute will start functioning very shortly, as the recent increase in earthquake activity is a warning for us. We will begin assessing buildings as soon as the institute becomes operational.”
Talking to The Daily Star a few weeks ago, Rajuk Chief Town Planner Md Ashraful Islam said recruitment was underway and expected to be completed within the next few months.
He said an executive director had already been appointed, with a Rajuk superintendent engineer currently serving in the role in addition to his regular responsibilities.
“As the institute already has its buildings and equipment, field operations will begin once the necessary manpower is recruited.”
Meanwhile, the Urban Resilience Project components implemented by the Department of Disaster Management (DDM), Dhaka North and South city corporations, the Fire Service and Civil Defence (FSCD), and Sylhet City Corporation were completed in 2024.
Former project director Tariq Bin Yusuf said the project strengthened urban disaster preparedness by enhancing search-and-rescue capacity and introducing ICT-based emergency management systems, including satellite phones, wireless networks, Emergency Operation Centres, surveillance systems, and a GIS-based emergency management platform.
“While the infrastructure is in place, its effectiveness depends on continued training and proper operation.”
He added that a JICA-supported initiative also developed 12 model disaster-resilient communities and schools.
“Some initiatives remain active, but scaling them up depends on government prioritisation,” Tariq said.
Razwanur Rahman, director general of Department of Disaster Management, told The Daily Star on December 15, 2025, that the government was treating earthquake risks seriously.
Since 2006, the government has procured substantial search-and-rescue equipment for the Armed Forces and Fire Service, including 11 turntable ladders capable of reaching 22-storey buildings, he said.
He also said at the time, additional heavy rescue equipment was expected to arrive within the following two months.
Rahman, however, said public awareness remains the most urgent priority.
Training and awareness programmes are being discussed with Unicef and other development partners. A proposed Tk 124-crore Urban Disaster Resilience Enhancement Project -- now awaiting Ecnec approval -- aims to train 10,000 urban volunteers and 2,000 government officials, another DDM official said.
“Disaster response cannot depend on the government alone,” Rahman said, stressing public cooperation, strict enforcement of building codes, and collective responsibility.
Following the Narsingdi earthquake, FSCD Director General Brig Gen Muhammad Jahed Kamal said a 60-member Special Rescue Team has been kept on standby at Purbachal, alongside firefighters stationed across the country.
“If any fire station becomes unable to operate because of an earthquake, this reserve team will be deployed.”
In addition, a 20-member reserve team has been stationed at each divisional headquarters, while a 40-member unit at Mirpur-10 is prepared to respond to chemical-related incidents, said Jahed.
“Considering earthquake risks, we are training 62,000 volunteers nationwide. Training for 55,000 has already been completed, and refresher courses are continuing.”
Rescue equipment is also being procured for volunteers, he said.
Although fire service personnel are trained in earthquake awareness and post-disaster rescue operations, the DG warned that a very high-magnitude earthquake could overwhelm existing capacity.
Under the national contingency plan, 120 additional fire stations from across the country would be deployed to Dhaka with heavy rescue equipment, while community volunteers would also be mobilised, Jahed continued.
Coordination is also being strengthened with public and private construction companies to ensure access to cranes, excavators, and other heavy machinery.
During a major disaster, all emergency response agencies -- including the armed forces, police, Rab, BGB, health services, and utility authorities -- will operate under the Standing Orders on Disaster under the leadership of the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief, he said.
“Through coordinated efforts, search-and-rescue operations can be carried out more effectively.”
