The BNP government has inherited one of the most complex foreign policy and humanitarian challenges in Bangladesh’s history: the Rohingya crisis.

This comes at a time when global attention is shifting to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. The result is dwindling international funding, worsening conditions in Myanmar and a continued influx of Rohingya into Bangladesh, adding pressure on already overcrowded camps in Cox’s Bazar.

Over the last two years, about 200,000 Rohingya have crossed into Bangladesh, while around 30,000 babies are born annually in the camps, where more than 1.2 million refugees have been living, the most since the mass exodus of 2017.

“Our reports suggest that every week 50 to 60 new Rohingya are entering Bangladesh,” Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner (RRRC) Mizanur Rahman told The Daily Star.

“Our reports suggest that every week 50 to 60 new Rohingya are entering Bangladesh.”

Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner (RRRC) Mizanur Rahman

The influx comes as monsoon rains continue to batter the camps. Between July 4 and 14, landslides, storms and floods killed at least 15 Rohingya, injured 22, displaced more than 13,000 and affected nearly 53,000 people, according to the Rohingya Coordination Platform, a joint government aid agency body.

The humanitarian pressure is growing as Bangladesh also grapples with higher energy prices triggered by the Middle East conflict and an increasing reliance on the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

The Joint Response Plan (JRP), launched in May, sought $710.5 million for 2026, down from $965 million the previous year -- a reflection of donor fatigue.

“This represents the bare minimum required to sustain the response,” the JRP says.

Aid agencies have already scaled back programmes and laid off thousands of refugee volunteers. In April, the World Food Programme reduced food assistance for around two-thirds of the refugees, leaving some with rations worth only $7 a month.

“There seems little prospect that funding levels will rebound. In fact, even maintaining current support will be difficult,” said the International Crisis Group in a report last week.

The funding shortfall has already affected education, healthcare and sanitation services in the camps, said RRRC Mizanur.

And without fresh donor commitments, food assistance could be reduced further, he added.

Budget cuts have forced agencies to suspend youth skills training and community engagement programmes, said a UN official.

“This creates frustration among Rohingya youth,” he said.

Frustration is also growing among local communities that initially welcomed the refugees in 2017, said Abu Morshed Chowdhury, co-chair of the Cox’s Bazar Civil Society Organisation-NGO Forum.

The prolonged refugee presence has contributed to drug smuggling, human trafficking and growing security concerns along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border, where fighting continues between Myanmar’s military and the Arakan Army (AA).

He suggested allowing private investment in industries producing goods for the camps so that Rohingya youth could gain skills and employment while reducing dependence on international aid.

Some refugees are already employed through aid-supported and private initiatives, but the programmes remain limited, said RRRC Mizanur.

Meanwhile, despite repeated initiatives, including Chinese-mediated efforts involving Bangladesh and Myanmar, not a single Rohingya has been repatriated since 2017.

The challenge has become even more complicated following Myanmar’s civil war, particularly the conflict between the military junta and the Arakan Army, which now controls nearly 90 percent of Rakhine State.

Recent reports indicate that Myanmar’s military has regained control of some areas after completing its election process earlier this year.

“After the election, Myanmar’s government is taking a civilian posture -- it is important for Bangladesh to closely watch the developments and act accordingly,” said Mazhar Uddin Bhuiyan, a public policy researcher and Felix Scholar at the University of Oxford.

The BNP government has repeatedly said it will engage both Myanmar’s military authorities and the Arakan Army to facilitate repatriation.

In August last year, under the leadership of Khalilur Rahman, the then national security adviser and high representative on Rohingya and today’s foreign minister, the foreign ministry hosted an international conference in Cox’s Bazar to draw global focus. Those had no visible impacts.

Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman recently said the BNP successfully oversaw Rohingya repatriation in the late 1970s and early 1990s and expressed confidence in achieving progress again, although he has not disclosed the government’s strategy.

On July 13, the government formed an 11-member National Strategy Formulation Committee on Rohingya Affairs, headed by Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, to prepare a comprehensive national strategy within 90 days.

The committee includes the home and foreign ministers, advisers overseeing finance and defence, the inspector general of police, the heads of the National Security Intelligence, Border Guard Bangladesh and Coast Guard, along with senior military officials. The principal staff officer of the Armed Forces Division will serve as chief coordinator, while the DG of DGFI will act as member-secretary.

The formation of such a high-powered committee shows the government considers the Rohingya crisis a priority, said Tawfique M Haque, director of the South Asian Institute of Policy and Governance at North South University.

“However, the composition suggests a dominance of security agencies -- this may be interpreted as viewing the Rohingya crisis primarily through a security lens. The crisis is simultaneously a diplomatic, humanitarian and security challenge and therefore requires a broader approach.”

He suggested placing the foreign ministry at the centre of policymaking and including representatives from academia, political parties, security agencies and even the Rohingya community to formulate a more comprehensive national strategy.

China has a huge influence and stake in Myanmar, and the proposed China-Myanmar-Bangladesh Economic Corridor can facilitate a solution to the Rohingya crisis, said the Felix scholar Mazhar.

“Dhaka should actively negotiate with Beijing to ensure stability in Myanmar, especially Rakhine, for solving the Rohingya crisis as the economic corridor proposal progresses.”