As is the usual practice every year, economists and experts on business trends locally and globally have been making their projections and predictions about how the country's as well as the world's economy will fare in the coming year (s). So far as Bangladesh's economy is concerned, much cannot be expected from it in the near future until its manufacturing sector comes of age. For, at present, the manufacturing is dominated by the Readymade Garment (RMG), which contributes roughly 25 per cent to the GDP and 81 per cent to the total export earnings. Overall, the manufacturing is contributing 34.81 per cent to the GDP.
The RMG sector demonstrated some resilience in the first half of last year, but in the second half its performance faced challenges (in November last year the export actually contracted) from external market due to uncertainties in international trade and politics. But to overcome Bangladesh's export-related challenges, diversification of exportable products as well as their destinations has become urgent. In this connection, the apparel industry's Apex body, BGMEA's talk of reaching a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Mercosur or Southern Common Market, which is a South American trade bloc, is a positive step forward. Notably, the size of the Mercosur economy is approximately USD 3 trillion. So, it is a move that may prove worth the while in the long run. The present-day world's economic order is highly volatile in the face of the US president Donald Trump's tariff-centred and other wars.
Bangladesh being an export-dependent economy, it could not remain unaffected by its impact since even after some exemptions, the main export item, the apparel products, would still have to pay 20 per cent tariff to enter the US market. The ongoing war in Ukraine, political volatility in the Middle East and other issues have reduced Bangladeshi apparel products' demand in their main destinations in the European Union (EU) and North American markets. And, following graduation scheduled for the month of November this year, the preferential treatment Bangladesh's exports had so far been receiving as a member of the LDCs from the EU markets might come to an end. So, the future does not hold much in store for Bangladesh as an export-and-remittance dependent economy. There are also challenges regarding remittance, given the political uncertainties in the Middle East. So, the hope that things both in the regional and international contexts would soon return to normalcy might prove to be a chimera. In that case, Bangladesh will have to fend for itself, keenly watch development abroad and prepare for the worst in the coming days. Economists and observers of the international financial markets are forecasting about the risk of another crisis in the global market driven by the US economy as the value of US dollar is falling. The US economy is facing a huge debt burden of USD38 trillion, with the public debt amounting USD30.8 trillion, which is between 120 and 125 per cent of that country's GDP. That explains to some extent President Trump's warmongering postures. In fact, US's economic decline vis-à-vis the rise of China's as a competitor on the global stage has a lot to do with the developments. The US-dominated unipolar world is giving way to multipolarity led by emerging economies like China. But changes are not going to happen smoothly. Bangladesh will have to learn to navigate through these ever-emerging complexities of the new world order in the making. That would require an able political leadership at the helm. It is expected that the elected government to take office following the February polls will be competent enough to efficiently deal with the upcoming challenges on the home as well as the regional and global fronts.
