Warner Bros may be on the auction block, but its films are leading the Oscar race. Industry watchers expect the studio’s two biggest hits—“Sinners” and “One Battle After Another”—to dominate nominations when the Academy reveals its shortlist on Thursday.
Both films are tipped to collect a dozen or more nominations, spanning best picture, acting categories, screenplay, technical awards, and the newly introduced best casting prize.
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The unusual position of one studio holding the two clear frontrunners comes as Warner Bros faces uncertainty, with Paramount Skydance and Netflix reportedly competing to buy its parent company, Warner Bros Discovery. Despite corporate turmoil, the studio has had a strong year by backing original films rather than franchise sequels.
“Sinners,” directed by Ryan Coogler of “Black Panther” fame, is a period horror drama set in the segregated American South. It stars Michael B. Jordan as twin brothers battling both supernatural and human evil in 1930s Mississippi. He is widely expected to earn a best actor nomination.
Variety awards analyst Clayton Davis predicts the film could challenge the all-time record of 14 nominations, currently shared by “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land.” Coogler, Davis wrote, is “rewriting the math entirely.”
Warner’s other powerhouse is Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” a thriller following a former revolutionary searching for his teenage daughter amid a backdrop of extremist violence and immigration crackdowns. The film has already broken the record for most nominations ever received from the Screen Actors Guild.
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Leonardo DiCaprio, who stars in the film, is almost certain to receive his seventh Oscar acting nomination.
Netflix, meanwhile, is campaigning several strong contenders: Guillermo del Toro’s gothic horror “Frankenstein,” frontier drama “Train Dreams,” and animated musical hit “KPop Demon Hunters.” Paramount’s awards slate, by contrast, is seen as thin this year.
In the acting races, several films are drawing attention. “Hamnet,” a fictional reimagining of William Shakespeare mourning the death of his son, is expected to score multiple nominations. Jessie Buckley, who plays Shakespeare’s wife Agnes, is widely seen as a best actress frontrunner.
She is likely to compete with Emma Stone in the offbeat drama “Bugonia,” and Renate Reinsve in Norwegian film “Sentimental Value.”
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With the Academy’s international membership growing, non-English-language films could make a strong showing. Palme d’Or winner “It Was Just An Accident,” Brazil’s political thriller “The Secret Agent,” and Norway’s “Sentimental Value” are all in contention for best picture, though analysts say space may be tight.
Wagner Moura, starring in “The Secret Agent” as a scientist fleeing Brazil’s 1970s dictatorship, is expected to challenge Jordan and DiCaprio in the best actor race.
The current frontrunner in that category, however, is Timothée Chalamet. His performance as a fiercely ambitious ping pong prodigy in 1950s New York in “Marty Supreme” has already earned him major prizes, including a Golden Globe and a Critics Choice Award.
This year also introduces a new Oscar category: best casting, honouring casting directors. With no history to guide voters, it is unclear what will matter most—star power, ensemble chemistry, or the discovery of new talent.
The nominations will be announced Thursday at 5:30 am Los Angeles time. The 98th Academy Awards ceremony will take place on March 15.
