Three tankers -- two in Iraq and one in UAE waters -- were struck yesterday, an apparent escalation in Iranian attacks that have disrupted Middle East energy supplies, despite President Donald Trump’s claim that the Islamic republic was facing imminent defeat.
Oil prices soared yesterday, briefly trading above $100, and stock markets extended losses as Iran’s attempts to hit supplies in the Middle East offset the release of crude reserves by major economies.
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Iran has launched a new wave of attacks against Gulf energy targets, as the International Energy Agency said the Mideast war “is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”.
IEA member countries have agreed to unlock 400 million barrels of oil from their reserves -- their largest release ever.
However, the move was unable to overcome fears about the choking of energy supplies, with the Strait of Hormuz -- through which a fifth of global crude passes -- effectively shut down.
Images, verified by Reuters as having been filmed from the shore of the port of Basra, showed two ships engulfed in massive orange fireballs that lit up the night sky.
Iraqi authorities said the vessels had been attacked overnight by Iranian boats laden with explosives. At least one crew member was killed.
Hours earlier, three other ships had been struck in the Gulf. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed responsibility for at least one of those attacks, on a Thai bulk carrier that was set ablaze, which the Guards said had disobeyed their orders.
Another container vessel reported being struck by an unknown projectile near the United Arab Emirates yesterday, a maritime security authority said.
Meanwhile, multiple explosions rocked Tehran and other cities yesterday as US-Israeli attacks continued.
The war, which was launched by the US and Israel and has so far killed around 2,000 people.
Undermining US and Israeli claims to have knocked out much of Iran’s stock of long-range weapons, more drones were reported flying yesterday into Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE, Bahrain and Oman.
Iran has said it would not allow oil through the world’s most important energy trade route -- the Strait of Hormuz that runs along its coast -- until US and Israeli attacks ceased, and it would not conduct any negotiations with Washington.
Iran’s military has vowed to launch strikes against US and Israeli economic interests in the region, including banks, while an Iranian news agency listed tech giants as possible “future targets”.
Citibank announced yesterday it would temporarily shut its branches in the UAE, a day after Iran said it considered banks and economic sites to be legitimate targets and warned Middle East residents to stay 1,000 metres from them. HSBC has shut branches in Qatar.
No senior Iranian official has floated the idea of negotiations except Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who on Wednesday, outlined three conditions to end the war: recognition of Tehran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations and firm international guarantees against future aggression. However, the demands are in themselves unattainable, said analysts.
Trump, whose Republican Party is trying to hold on to Congress in an election later this year, has repeatedly tried to calm energy markets this week by saying the war will soon be over and the surge in oil prices will be short-lived.
But he has not fully explained how the war will end, or presented a plan to reopen the blockaded strait. US and Israeli officials say the aim is to destroy Iran’s missile and nuclear programmes, but Trump has also demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and the power to determine its leaders.
“You never like to say too early you won. We won,” Trump told a campaign-style rally in Hebron, Kentucky, on Wednesday. “In the first hour, it was over.”
The United States had “virtually destroyed Iran”, he said. But he added, “We don’t want to leave early, do we? We got to finish the job.”
He said Iran’s navy and air force had been destroyed, that it was close to running out of missiles and that US forces could knock out the electricity supply “within one hour” -- leaving the country with a reconstruction that could take a generation.
But the US leader indicated that he would rather show restraint than take actions that would make it “almost impossible for them to rebuild their country.”
But three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that US intelligence indicated that Iran’s leadership was still largely intact and not at risk of collapse any time soon.
Israel’s military also signalled the campaign was far from finished, and that it still had “a broad bank of targets.”
Pentagon officials have meanwhile briefed US lawmakers that the cost of the war exceeded $11.3 billion in its first six days, The New York Times reported, citing people familiar with the classified briefing.
Iran has made clear over the past two days that its strategy now is to impose a prolonged economic shock on the world to force Trump to back off.
The spokesperson for Iran’s military command said on Wednesday that the world should prepare for oil prices of $200 a barrel because of instability caused by the US. That would be well above the highest oil price in the history of $147.27 in July 2008, weeks before the start of the global financial crisis.
Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG, said the attacks on the ships in Iraq looked like “a direct and forceful Iranian response” to the reserves release.
Meanwhile, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright yesterday said the country’s military is currently “not ready” to escort tankers through the strait because all its assets are focused on striking Iran.
Trump has repeatedly sought to calm the markets by offering US Navy escorts for oil tankers and reinsurance facilities for shipping companies -- but no escorts have so far taken place.
“It’ll happen relatively soon, but it can’t happen now. We’re simply not ready,” Wright told CNBC.
He added that it was “quite likely” such escorts would be taking place by the end of the month.
Iran also hit fuel tanks in Bahrain, and drones struck oil storage facilities at Oman’s Salalah port on Wednesday. Saudi Arabia said it had also intercepted several drones heading towards its Shaybah oilfield yesterday.
The Gulf has borne the brunt of Iran’s attacks since the Middle East war began on February 28, with 24 people killed in the region, including seven US service members and 11 civilians.
Iran’s army yesterday also claimed to have targeted Israeli military bases and the country’s security service Shin Bet as the war entered its 13th day.
Analysts warn that a prolonged disruption to shipping through the strait -- which also carries roughly a third of the fertiliser used in global food production -- would deliver a severe economic shock, particularly in Asia and Europe.
Meanwhile, the UN Security Council passed a resolution demanding Iran halt attacks on Gulf states, prompting the Islamic republic’s ambassador to the UN to accuse it of a “blatant misuse” of its mandate.