Data from the BMD reveals that the country’s traditional monsoon schedule is actively shifting. June, which traditionally marks the arrival of steady monsoon rains, has increasingly recorded below-average rainfall; nearly 30 per cent less than normal this year. Combined with persistently high temperatures, these dry conditions allowed heat to build up. When rain finally arrived in July, much of the seasonal rainfall fell within a short period, leading to flooding and waterlogging in many parts of the country.
Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable because its economy and livelihoods are closely tied to seasonal weather. Agriculture still employs millions of people, and crop production depends heavily on the timing of rainfall and temperature. When seasons become irregular, farming becomes much more difficult.
For instance, in northwestern Bangladesh, one of the country's drought-prone regions, many people no longer trust the traditional agricultural calendar. They know that summers are becoming hotter, but their greatest concern is uncertainty. Rain sometimes arrives too late for cultivation. At other times, heavy rainfall damages crops just before harvest.
Heatwaves dry out the soil rapidly, increasing irrigation needs, while sudden downpours often fail to compensate for the earlier moisture loss because much of the water runs off quickly instead of replenishing the soil and groundwater. These sufferings are also experienced by farmers in coastal areas, and floodplains. Although the challenges differ from one region to another, the underlying problem is the same: weather patterns are becoming less reliable.
This growing unpredictability has consequences beyond agriculture. It affects water management, fisheries, transport, public health and even household finances. When heavy rainfall occurs unexpectedly, cities experience waterlogging because drainage systems cannot cope with such intense rainfall. When heatwaves become longer, electricity demand rises while outdoor workers face greater health risks. Every sector is forced to deal with greater uncertainty.
