Climate change-induced drought has intensified across the Barind tract, pushing farmers into a cycle of falling crop production, rising costs and deepening livelihood insecurity, according to a recent study and field-level accounts.

The study, published in the journal ‘Environmental and Sustainability Indicators’ on March 6, identifies groundwater depletion and repeated crop losses as the most severe impacts, forcing farmers to adopt short-term coping strategies that threaten long-term agricultural sustainability.

Conducted by researchers from Bangladesh Agricultural University and Sher-e-Bangla Agricultural University between 2023 and 2024, the study surveyed 351 farmers in Tanore upazila of Rajshahi and Nachol upazila of Chapainawabganj using focus group discussions and key informant interviews.

According to the findings, drought has reduced rice production by about 36 per cent and wheat output by up to 60 per cent in some areas.

According to farmers, the decline is even sharper on the ground: in Tanore, paddy yields have dropped from 22–24 maunds to 14–16 maunds per bigha, while wheat production has fallen by more than half in some areas.

‘We used to get around 25 maunds of paddy from one bigha of land. Now, due to drought and water shortages, it has dropped to as low as 14 maunds,’ said Jahidur Rahman, a farmer from Dubail village.

He added that rising irrigation costs and declining access to water were making cultivation increasingly unviable.

The study estimates that income losses can reach up to 40 per cent during severe drought years, forcing many farmers to migrate seasonally to urban areas in search of work such as day labourer, rickshaw pulling and factory jobs.

Groundwater extraction remains the dominant coping strategy, with more than 90 per cent of farmers relying on deep and shallow tube wells. However, the study warns that this dependence is accelerating groundwater depletion.

‘Ten years ago, we found water at 80–85 feet depth. Now it has gone as below as 130 feet. Many deep tube wells are becoming unusable,’ said Nur Islam, a farmer from Talore village under Tanore upazila.

To cope with financial stress, farmers are increasingly selling productive assets. The study found that nearly half of respondents had sold livestock or other assets, while more than 60 per cent had taken loans during drought periods.

Mizanur Rahman, a farmer from Jumairpara village in Nachol upazila, said that families often sell cattle during droughts to cover farming costs, but oversupply in local markets reduces prices, leaving them with inadequate returns.

In extreme cases, households are forced to borrow from NGOs or informal lenders, often at high interest rates, he said.

Declining incomes are also affecting food consumption patterns: many families are reducing intake of high-cost items such as meat and relying more on cheaper alternatives like eggs, fish and vegetables, indicating growing food insecurity.

The study also highlights inequality in access to water: while some ponds are used for fish farming, smallholders often cannot use this water during droughts as relatively wealthier farmers control its access.

Although farmers are adapting through crop diversification and changes in planting schedules, sustainable water management practices remain limited.

About 77 per cent of farmers do not store water in ponds or tanks, while 87 per cent have never practised intercropping.

Researchers attribute this to lack of awareness, financial constraints and limited institutional support.

Rainwater harvesting and water recycling are also rarely practised despite increasing water scarcity.

The study notes that farmers’ coping ability depends more on access to extension services and perceptions of drought severity than on income or education.

However, farmers alleged inadequate support from agricultural extension and water management authorities.

They said that irrigation costs were rising due to power shortages and reliance on private pumps, while access to surface water remained limited.

The findings point to a structural crisis in the Barind region, where farmers are surviving through short-term measures that may further undermine agricultural sustainability.

Researchers recommend reducing reliance on groundwater by expanding surface water use, promoting low-cost irrigation technologies, providing low-interest credit and strengthening extension and climate advisory services.

Without coordinated intervention, the study warns, drought will continue to erode agricultural productivity and rural livelihoods in the region.