For four decades, Bangladesh has run a simple but effective economic bargain: export labour to the Gulf and import the earnings home. That bargain now seems to be fraying, and the government has been slow to notice.
Fresh government data show that just under 9.69 lakh Bangladeshis left for overseas jobs in the fiscal year that ended in June, a five-year low and a fall of 5 percent from the previous year. The decline follows an even steeper drop the year before, meaning outbound migration has now fallen for two consecutive years from the record of almost 12 lakh set in FY2024. What’s more, the US-Israel war on Iran has rattled confidence across the Gulf, disrupted flight schedules to the region, and left employers in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE more cautious about hiring. Monthly outflows, which had run at roughly 1 lakh for years, slowed sharply from March onward.
The scale of Bangladesh’s exposure to this one region is risky enough. Three-quarters of the more than 86 lakh Bangladeshis who went abroad for work between FY2015 and FY2025 went to the Middle East. Between 60 and 70 lakh Bangladeshi nationals are currently employed there, many in informal or precarious roles without permanent contracts. That concentration has become dangerous the moment the region lost stability. Migration analysts now warn that returning workers, not just fewer departures, may become the more telling indicator.
For now, the remittance numbers offer some comfort. Bangladesh took in a record $35 billion-plus in the previous fiscal year, and July inflows were up 15 percent year-on-year. But remittances could be a lagging indicator in the future. Given that remittances have been one of the few reliable buffers for a fragile economy, this is an issue the government cannot afford to shrug off.
There are, encouragingly, some doors opening elsewhere. Malaysia’s labour market looks set to reopen following a recent government visit, with recruiters citing demand for 200,000-300,000 workers and hiring potentially starting in September. That would help, but it is a fraction of what the Gulf alone used to absorb.
The lesson from this episode should be obvious. A labour-export model overly dependent on a single region cannot be a reliable strategy in the days to come. The government must diversify destination markets, cut visa and recruitment friction, and critically invest in skills training that would let Bangladeshi workers compete for higher-wage, more secure roles rather than the most precarious jobs on offer.
