The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has yet to release collection figures for the first two months of the current 2026-27 fiscal year, even though data for July and August should already be available.
The delay in disclosure has raised questions over the government's revenue position and its capacity to implement the budget.
With no visibility into how collection is tracking against this fiscal year's ambitious revenue target, economists say the gap could complicate policy decisions.
Amid a sluggish economy, pressure to raise government employees' pay, and rising expenditure on fuel imports and other sectors, having a clear read on revenue collection matters for implementing a large-scale budget.
The absence of updated figures has fuelled scepticism on that front.
Asked about the delay, NBR Research and Statistics Wing Director General Shamim Ara Begum said she was "on leave" and suggested contacting the chairman instead.
NBR Acting Chairman Ahsan Habib, however, did not answer repeated phone calls seeking comment.
Several NBR officials said the delay stems from comparatively lower collection following a change in VAT return filing rules.
Under the earlier system, monthly VAT returns had to be filed by the 15th of the following month, meaning updated collection figures typically took a few weeks to compile.
From this fiscal year, however, the mandatory monthly VAT return has been scrapped in favour of a quarterly filing system.
bdnews24.com spoke to several NBR field-level and board officials, who said VAT accounts for the largest share of revenue collection.
With the monthly filing requirement lifted, July and August collections have fallen, they said, adding that this was likely why authorities are "taking their time" releasing updated figures.
Whether overall collection has genuinely declined, or remains “satisfactory”, will only become clear three months from now, once businesses file their VAT returns.
Economic analysts warn that delayed disclosure risks raising doubts over whether the government is maintaining data integrity at all.
It could also breed frustration among officials and make it harder to take the right policy decisions at the right time.
Towfiqul Islam Khan, senior research fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), a private research organisation, said tax collection data often ties directly into policy decisions.
“What we can't understand is that revenue mobilisation is already extremely challenging right now. So the NBR should be publishing data regularly. Otherwise, it creates difficulties for policymaking, and it already is.”
Drawing on experience from the previous government's tenure, he said: "Making policy decisions without the right data at the right time can often prove self-defeating for us. And the government ends up in trouble because of it."
The 2026-27 budget is worth Tk 9.38 trillion, with a total revenue target of Tk 6.95 trillion.
Of this, the NBR has been tasked with collecting Tk 6.04 trillion in taxes, meaning about 86.9 percent of the government’s total revenue target is expected to come through the tax authority.
The NBR collected Tk 4.15 trillion in the last fiscal year. This means it has been given a target to raise 45 percent more in tax revenue this year, a rate of growth Bangladesh has never achieved before.
NBR data show revenue growth stood at 12.66 percent in 2021-22, 10.57 percent in the following fiscal year, and 11 percent in 2023-24. Growth slowed to 2.50 percent in 2024-25 before rising to 12.03 percent in 2025-26.
VAT Collection Turns ‘Negative’
To meet this year’s revenue target, the NBR has set a target of Tk 1.57 trillion from customs duties and taxes on imports and exports, accounting for 26 percent of the overall target.
Another Tk 2.23 trillion each is expected from VAT, income tax and travel tax at the domestic level, together accounting for 74 percent of the total target.
VAT has been the largest source of revenue for several years and has also generally recorded the strongest growth.
But slower economic activity has weighed on VAT growth, making it the weakest performer among the three major revenue streams in the last fiscal year.
Figures for 2025-26 show that income tax recorded the highest growth.
A total of Tk 1.46 trillion was collected through corporate tax, travel tax and withholding tax, with growth of 12.80 percent.
Customs duties on imports and exports brought in Tk 1.12 trillion, up 11.90 percent.
VAT remained the largest source of revenue, generating Tk 1.58 trillion in 2025-26, with growth of 11.80 percent.
Despite weaker growth, VAT remains the primary engine of revenue collection.
This July, the first month of the current fiscal year, VAT collection fell compared with the same month last year.
That, according to several NBR officials, is the reason updated revenue figures have been held back.
Asked whether the government was, in effect, trying to inflate the numbers before releasing them, an official said: "No, no, that's not it. We're trying to combine two or three months of data together. Once VAT returns come in after three months, we'll understand the actual picture."
A large share of VAT revenue comes from government infrastructure projects.
Officials suggested that if VAT collection trends negative in the first month or two, the shortfall could potentially be adjusted using VAT funds tied to those projects.
Asked whether VAT growth had simply slowed, or whether collection had actually dropped compared with last year, the official said: "Lower means negative. Growth means growth. Even a small figure would have been published. It's negative right now."
On plans to release two months of data together, the official said: "A decision should come within the next one to two weeks."
Field-level officials, however, believe that shifting VAT returns to a quarterly filing cycle has made it impossible to maintain the monthly collection targets and monitoring that used to be in place.
Another official said the matter was raised at a meeting with the Prime Minister's Panning Advisor Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, who gave "policy-level approval" to revert from quarterly filing back to the earlier monthly system.
"But since nearly two and a half months have already passed, the government wants to wait a little longer. A decision will be made after reviewing the filing rate and revenue growth three months from now," the official said.
‘Timely Data Is in the Government’s Own Interest’
Asked if delayed disclosure raised the risk of data being altered before release, CPD's Towfiqul Islam said: "If the intent is there, tampering is possible whether you release data late or early.
"But drawing on the previous government's experience, what we keep emphasising is this: if data isn't published impartially, it's ultimately the government in power that pays the price, because it ends up confusing their own policymaking."
That, he said, leaves officials “groping in the dark”. “So it's very much in the government's own interest to present data accurately, and on time.”
On the drop in VAT collection tied to scrapping the monthly filing requirement, the expert said the rule may offer businesses some benefit, since it lets them hold onto liquidity for a month or two.
"That might explain why collection came in lower. But it can't be a reason to withhold the data itself," he added.
