With England already through and Sri Lanka eliminated, the race for the second semi-final spot in Group 2 of the ICC T20 World Cup is down to New Zealand and Pakistan.

New Zealand are in pole position after their 61-run win over Sri Lanka on Wednesday lifted them to three points with a strong Net Run Rate of +3.050. A victory over England in their final Super Eights match on Friday will seal qualification, confirm them as group toppers with five points, and ensure both semi-finals are hosted in India.

However, if England beat New Zealand, the equation opens up. England would finish top with six points, and Pakistan would remain in contention — but only with a significant improvement in Net Run Rate.

Pakistan, who have one point and an NRR of -0.461, must first rely on England defeating New Zealand. They would then need to beat Sri Lanka on Saturday by a substantial margin to overturn New Zealand’s superior NRR.

For example:

If England score 180 and beat New Zealand by 30 runs, Pakistan would need to win by around 40 runs (assuming a similar first-innings total). In simple terms, the combined victory margins of the two matches would need to total roughly 70 runs.

If New Zealand score 150 and England chase it in 17 overs, Pakistan — chasing the same 150 — would need to reach the target in approximately 14.4 overs to move ahead on NRR.

The final outcome will also determine the venue of the first semi-final: if New Zealand qualify, it will be held in Kolkata; if Pakistan advance, Colombo will host it.

In short, New Zealand control their destiny, while Pakistan need both favourable results and a dominant win to claim the final semi-final spot.