AT PRESENT, the world is in a state of severe geopolitical instability. Even before the conflicts between Israel and Palestine and between Ukraine and Russia could be resolved, a large-scale Iran–Israel confrontation intensified. The United States’ direct support for Israel, along with the indirect backing of Iran by Russia, China, and France, has significantly altered the course of this conflict. As a result, its impact is being felt across the entire Middle East and around the world — in military, economic and trade sectors alike.
Dependence on fossil fuels
EVEN if the drumbeats and clamour of war cannot be heard from thousands of miles away, its heat is steadily radiating across the world, and Bangladesh is no exception. Countries either directly involved in or significantly affected by armed conflict, such as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar, extract fossil fuel resources and distribute them across the globe.
This supply chain is also considerably centralised — approximately 20 per cent of the world’s oil is transported through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the International Energy Agency, nearly 85 per cent of total global energy consumption relies on mineral fossil fuels.
Thousands of years ago, people burnt coal — and they continue to do so today. Even in an era of remarkable scientific advancement, the production of renewable or alternative energy sources remains largely unprofitable in most cases, and the volume of production is negligible compared to the scale of demand. As a consequence, an energy crisis has already begun to emerge worldwide, particularly in developing nations, the repercussions of which are likely to persist for a long time.
Impact on Bangladesh
AS A developing and import-dependent nation, the economic pressure that this crisis has imposed on Bangladesh has had a direct bearing on the country’s commercial and industrial establishments, compelling them to scale back production. A transportation system edging towards paralysis, and mile-long queues stretching in front of petrol stations — these are glaring, undeniable manifestations of the severity of the situation. Even if this sordid rivalry of international geopolitics were to conclude abruptly, its aftermath would linger for years on end. In the United States alone, oil prices have already surged to $112 per barrel — a stark contrast to last year’s figure of $70 or below. Although Bangladesh’s fuel market is not entirely Middle East-centric — with imports also sourced from Malaysia, Singapore, India, Indonesia, and other nations — the overall energy market remains deeply volatile. Therefore, without further delay, we must urgently begin exploring alternative energy sources. Failing to do so would render the management of economic hardship not merely difficult, but entirely unviable in the long run.
Bangladesh’s energy market
Bangladesh possesses reserves of only natural gas and coal, both of which are extracted in quantities far too modest to meet domestic demand. Furthermore, these reserves are progressively being depleted. Fuel oil is almost entirely import-dependent, procured in both refined and crude forms. Substantial quantities of liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas are likewise imported to supplement domestic supply.
According to reports from Petrobangla and the BPC, the country’s total annual demand for natural gas stands at 1,460 billion cubic feet. Domestic extraction yields approximately 700 billion cubic feet per year, while an additional 300 billion cubic feet — accounting for roughly 30 per cent of demand — are imported. To bridge the remaining shortfall, liquefied gas is imported at a rate of approximately 1.5 million tonnes annually. Liquid fossil fuels such as octane and diesel are almost wholly sourced from abroad. While domestic gas fields do yield a modest quantity of condensate as a secondary by-product — amounting to around 270,000 tonnes per year — this remains far from sufficient. Eastern Refinery Limited processes approximately 1.5 million tonnes of imported crude oil, which is then refined and distributed nationwide; however, this volume falls considerably short of requirements. Consequently, an additional 5.5 million tonnes of pre-refined petroleum products must be imported to meet the country’s overall consumption needs.
Reduce dependence on domestic reserves
TAKEN altogether, annual expenditure on fuel alone amounts to approximately $12 billion. A 20 per cent reduction in this figure would translate to savings of nearly $2.5 billion — and it is primarily with this objective in mind that operating hours for offices, courts, and shopping malls have been curtailed. However, it is by no means a sustainable long-term solution.
Meanwhile, due to a combination of factors including economic recession and a decline in remittance inflows, foreign currency reserves continue to stagnate. As a result, even when fuel can be procured from Asian nations, it must be purchased at considerably elevated prices.
The Bangladesh Petroleum Exploration and Production Company Limited has already identified a number of promising gas fields, which is encouraging. In addition to the eight currently operational fields, three new gas fields are set to come online by 2027. Beyond that, the vast untapped potential concealed within Bangladesh’s maritime territory remains largely uncharted. Through comprehensive offshore exploration, substantial quantities of fuel resources could potentially be extracted from beneath the seabed. Admittedly, offshore extraction entails significantly higher costs compared to onshore operations — yet it would be prudent to prioritise thorough exploration before allowing financial considerations to take precedence. While certain private groups had made considerable headway in exploration and extraction, their operations were subsequently suspended on political grounds. Where credible evidence of corruption exists, it ought to be addressed through proper legal channels. Ultimately, any suitably qualified group or company could be granted this opportunity under clearly defined terms and conditions.
Potential of alternative
BIOFUEL presents a viable option worth pursuing as an alternative energy source. Ethanol and biodiesel are among the most notable forms of biofuel. In the United States, a mandatory 10 per cent ethanol blend is incorporated into liquid fuels, produced entirely through the fermentation process. This not only alleviates pressure on mineral oil reserves but also yields considerable cost savings. In Brazil, the proportion of biofuel usage stands at approximately 27 per cent, while in Sweden it reaches nearly 30 per cent. Globally, however, biofuels account for a mere 4 per cent of total energy consumption. It must be acknowledged that biofuels offer limited environmental benefit in the strictest sense, as combustion reactions still produce carbon dioxide — and for this reason, they cannot be classified as entirely green energy. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that the level of pollution generated is demonstrably lower than that of conventional mineral fuels. An additional challenge lies in the fact that biofuel production requires biomass, which in turn demands substantial tracts of arable land. As a predominantly agrarian nation, Bangladesh generates abundant biomass that could be readily harnessed for biofuel production.
Regrettably, Bangladesh currently has no distillery capable of producing alcohol through large-scale fermentation other than Carew & Co. Furthermore, sugar remains Carew & Co.’s primary product, with alcohol serving merely as a by-product — thus limiting its output considerably. Additional biofuel or distillery plants could feasibly be established in various parts of the country in accordance with the availability of raw materials. Even blending as little as 10 per cent biofuel with conventional fuel would go some way towards easing overall energy pressure. During a period of crisis, reducing import dependency by even $1 billion would constitute a landmark and pragmatic step forward.
Future of clean energy
GREEN energy refers to all energy sources that produce no carbon dioxide emissions whatsoever. Biomass gasification represents a remarkably promising alternative method, through which hydrogen fuel can be obtained. In essence, when organic materials such as rice straw, husks, wood, or urban waste are used as raw materials and subjected to reactions at elevated temperatures with severely restricted oxygen supply, the hydrogen molecules are effectively separated from the organic compounds. Japan, Germany, and China have already been successfully harnessing this method for electricity generation. Since hydrogen is an exceptionally lightweight and highly combustible gas, it is not conventionally used in standard vehicles — rockets being the notable exception. However, it can serve as a highly efficient fuel for power plants.
Theoretically, approximately 170 kg of hydrogen can be extracted from every tonne (1,000 kg) of biomass, though in practical terms this yield ranges between 100 and 125 kg per tonne. Each kilogram of hydrogen yields approximately 120 megajoules of energy — a figure that stands in stark contrast to gasoline, which produces 42–44 megajoules per kilogram, and coal, which generates a mere 24 megajoules per kilogram. Bangladesh’s major urban centres produce approximately 2.5 million tonnes of organic waste annually. Were this waste to be successfully converted into hydrogen, it would be equivalent to roughly 500,000 tonnes of gasoline. Should agricultural biomass be utilised to its full extent, this figure could increase manifold. In such a scenario, dependence on petroleum oil within the energy sector could be reduced considerably.
Realising this far-reaching vision will require attention across a considerably broader range of areas. Despite being a high-grade fuel, hydrogen cannot be directly utilised in most practical applications, leaving electricity generation as the sole viable pathway. The electricity thus produced can subsequently be channelled towards a variety of other uses. However, a substantial challenge persists in this regard. The overwhelming majority of vehicles in Bangladesh run on conventional fuel oil, and transitioning to electric or rechargeable systems would necessitate a coordinated, collective effort.
Since the purchase price of rechargeable vehicles is several times higher than that of conventional ones, it remains questionable whether consumers would be willing to bear such an additional financial burden. The developed world, albeit gradually, is increasingly shifting towards electric transportation. Renowned manufacturers including Tesla, BYD, Mercedes-Benz, and Hyundai are directing considerable attention towards electric vehicle design, and it is quite plausible that within the next few years, the prices of such vehicles will become far more accessible. Bangladesh has already conducted preliminary feasibility studies on electric vehicles on an experimental basis. With an improved grid system and some degree of modification to major highways, there would be virtually no significant obstacles remaining to the widespread adoption of electric vehicles.
Directing focus towards clean energy production from this point onwards would therefore constitute an extraordinarily forward-thinking and visionary step. For Bangladesh to assert its presence on the global stage in this sector, dedicated attention from the country’s public and private research institutions — engineering universities in particular — is indispensable. If clean energy initiatives guided by zero-emission policies have proved successful in developed nations, there is no reason they cannot be replicated in Bangladesh. All that is required is governmental encouragement and unwavering resolve. Perhaps most compellingly, biofuel and clean energy projects could also be seamlessly integrated — given that hydrogen is being continuously derived from biofuels across the world. Indeed, approximately 90–95 per cent of the world’s total hydrogen supply is obtained through the gasification of natural gas, oil, or alcohol.
Wind energy and solar energy represent two further critically important sectors, through which electricity can be generated by harnessing energy from the sun without any carbon dioxide emissions whatsoever. Since the efficiency of conversion from solar energy to electrical energy remains comparatively low, considerably more research into material design is needed. Space constraints, however, pose a significant limiting factor, for the greater the surface area covered by solar panels, the greater the electricity output. Much the same principle applies to wind energy. Site selection must therefore be carried out strategically, prioritising locations where a consistent airflow can be reliably expected. Establishing wind power plants along the coastline or on the banks of major rivers would yield highly favourable results. Across the country, the combined output of solar energy from small and large-scale installations currently stands at approximately 500 megawatts, while wind energy contributes a total of around 15 megawatts. Should expanded projects be undertaken, these figures could potentially climb to several thousand megawatts. Although Bangladesh’s current total electricity demand stands at approximately 17,000 megawatts, actual production amounts to around 14,000 megawatts. The power division has set an ambitious target of reaching 40,000 megawatts of generation capacity by 2030. If at least 2,000 megawatts could be sourced from solar and wind energy, it would prove enormously beneficial — since beyond the initial installation and maintenance costs, there are no ongoing fuel expenditures whatsoever.
Technological proficiency in energy sector
JUST as energy production presents a formidable challenge, so too does its efficient storage. In both domains, technological limitations are currently contributing to excessive fuel consumption. Combined cycle power plants operate at a considerably higher efficiency than gas turbines or steam turbines alone, yet the number of such plants in Bangladesh remains relatively limited. Many older power plants continue to function on outdated technology, resulting in substantial fuel wastage.
Equal attention must also be directed towards electricity storage. According to data from the Bangladesh Road Transport Authority, the total number of registered vehicles in 2024–25 stands at 6.59 million. Of these, approximately 350,000 are registered battery-powered auto-rickshaws. Charging these auto-rickshaws alone accounts for roughly 1–1.5 per cent of Bangladesh’s total electricity consumption. While some operators have adopted lithium-ion batteries, the majority continue to opt for lead-acid batteries due to their prohibitively lower cost. Despite the fact that lead-acid batteries are comparatively less efficient, they are commonly used. These batteries also deteriorate rapidly, and if not properly processed upon disposal, they pose a severe risk of environmental contamination. Improvements to battery storage systems would simultaneously benefit solar and wind power plants in a direct and meaningful way.
The path towards resolving these challenges can be broadly divided into three phases. In the short term, focus could be directed towards operating existing power plants at higher efficiency levels — a measure that would prove advantageous both for fuel conservation and environmental sustainability. In the medium term, extensive exploration could be conducted across Bangladesh in search of new domestic energy sources, while directing attention towards battery systems and grid-scale energy storage. In the long term, hydrogen fuel and biofuels must become the central priorities. Success in this sector would ultimately reduce dependence on fossil fuels to a considerable degree.
Environmentally conscious policy
WITHOUT meaningful policy reform, attracting the attention of innovators remains an unattainable goal. There may well be numerous researchers at BUET and other institutions who, due to a lack of support at the policy level, find themselves unable to translate groundbreaking ideas into reality. In line with international practice, Bangladesh could consider adopting a ‘feed-in tariff’ policy to incentivise the establishment of green or clean energy plants. Above all, opportunities must be extended to all suitably qualified individuals, irrespective of political affiliation. In such a framework, stringent regulations must be imposed on owners and enterprises alike, ensuring that political connections can under no circumstances be exploited as a means of engaging in money laundering or any other form of illicit commercial activity.
The prevailing global instability and the ongoing energy crisis will not be resolved overnight. Even once the immediate crisis subsides, fuel prices are unlikely to decline with any degree of ease. Industrial and manufacturing sectors are suffering considerable damage, and foreign currency earnings continue to dwindle. How long the country’s reserves can sustain this strain is difficult to predict with any certainty. It is therefore incumbent upon not only the government, but also every reputable research institution, to actively pursue the exploration of alternative fuels and strive towards their practical implementation within the specific context of Bangladesh. Perhaps the day is not too far off when the volume of fuel Bangladesh imports will be reduced by a substantial margin.
Mohammad Ismail is the vice chancellor of Noakhali Science and Technology University and a professor of applied chemistry and chemical engineering at the University of Dhaka.
