With ongoing rainfall across the country, the risk of dengue transmission is expected to rise in the coming months if authorities fail to take necessary preventive measures, experts have warned.
Data from the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) show that at least four dengue patients have died and 2,449 others have been hospitalised so far this year, as of April 28.
According to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), light to moderate rain or thundershowers, accompanied by temporary gusty or squally winds and lightning, are likely to occur in many areas of Mymensingh, Dhaka, Khulna, Barishal, Chattogram and Sylhet divisions.
The situation may be worse than last year. Not only in Dhaka, but in districts outside the capital, conditions could deteriorate further.
Kabirul Bashar, Entomologist
A few places in Rangpur and Rajshahi divisions may also experience rainfall, while moderately heavy to very heavy downpours are expected at isolated locations across Mymensingh, Dhaka, Khulna, Barishal, Chattogram and Sylhet divisions. This weather pattern is likely to continue until May 3, the BMD added.
Entomologist Kabirul Bashar, a professor at Jahangirnagar University, said in Dhaka, almost every area has a Breteau Index above 20, with some areas exceeding 90 -- an alarming indication of dengue risk. He warned that dengue cases this year could surpass last year’s figures if immediate measures are not taken.
A Breteau Index (BI) of 20 -- meaning 20 positive containers per 100 houses inspected -- is a recognised public health and epidemiological threshold indicating a high likelihood of a dengue outbreak. Such levels suggest that Aedes mosquito breeding conditions are highly favorable and that vector control measures must be intensified immediately.
“With this rainfall, water will accumulate in many small and large containers. If proper breeding source management is not ensured now, the density of mosquito breeding sites will increase further,” he said, referring to recent research conducted at Jahangirnagar University.
He added that mosquito density is likely to rise through May and June, while dengue cases -- already appearing at a low level -- are expected to increase gradually, with a possible surge in July and August.
“The situation may be worse than last year. Not only in Dhaka, but in districts outside the capital, conditions could deteriorate further,” he warned.
He also noted a lack of effective interventions outside Dhaka, which could accelerate the spread of dengue in the coming months, he said.
To address the situation, he emphasised the urgent need to strengthen and reorganise local government systems and prepare them to respond effectively.
Entomologist GM Saifur Rahman said, “We need to focus on environmental measures -- clearing breeding sites, activating early warning systems, and preparing in advance. While these measures are not perfect, they are essential. At the same time, insecticides must be applied properly, but there has been a lack of preparation in this regard,” he said.
He also pointed out that routine mosquito control programmes.
