BANGLADESH has tended to be optimistic about its demographic dividend for good reasons. More than a half the population is under 35 and each year thousands of young people join the job market with the dreams of their families that have sacrificed, saved and educated them. However, the concern of increasing economic and social costs of youth unemployment is less visible in the rhetoric of growth and opportunity.
No longer is this a problem limited to statistics found in economic reports. It can be seen in an increasing number of graduates taking migration examinations rather than job interviews, disappointed educated young people who spend hours giving competitive recruitment tests and growing disparity between academic qualifications and access to jobs. Bangladesh might be churning out graduates in a greater number than it can provide for them with decent employment opportunities.
The effects are more than just individual. They are very economic, institutional and social. In developing economies, there is a paradox of youth unemployment. The expansion of gross domestic product can occur in a country that cannot accommodate its educated population. In infrastructure, export, digitalisation and poverty alleviation, Bangladesh has achieved tremendous progress. But, there is no one-size-fits-all solution to achieving employment-intensive growth. Growth if not accompanied by quality employment is a very dangerous condition for any emerging economy, as economists refer to it as ‘jobless growth.’
Unemployment is not only the loss of income, it is also a loss of confidence, identity and social participation for many young people. The path to upward mobility, which was once the belief that a university degree would provide, is becoming less certain. Students and their families go to great lengths to pay for a college education and then find that they can continue to count on parents for support well into adulthood. Parents and students invest years, funding higher education only to find their children are still relying on parental support well into their adulthood. Long spells of unemployment can have an emotional impact, leading to anxiety, isolation and the loss of trust in institutions.
This disappointment is not something that s discussed openly and it does have economic implications. The unemployed youth are less productive for consumption, investment and taxes. This also delays marriage, home ownership, entrepreneurship and planning for the long term. The productivity of a whole generation is, in effect, suspended.
It is, probably, the most alarming result: the rapidization of the migration culture. More and more, the talented youth perceive the alternative to participation as departure as the most rational economic choice. Some are interested in studying overseas without any plans for return while others are interested in any kind of employment abroad, whether qualified for or not.
The act of migration is not bad. Remittance continues to be one of the economic lifelines of Bangladesh. But, continuous leakage of educated and skilled youth poses serious concerns of brain drain. The brain drain of physicians, engineers, researchers, IT specialists and highly educated graduates represents not only the loss of human resources but also that of innovation potential, institutional leadership and productivity potential.
The problem is even more worrisome when looked at from the perspective of public investment. The government provides financial support for education through public universities and educational infrastructure and the long-term return of the investment on education is increasing to be realised outside Bangladesh. The country develops human resources that are later used by other economies.
Meanwhile, a structural mismatch in the labour market continues. Employers often lament a lack of skills and graduates complain of lack of jobs. This paradox points to a more serious issue: there is a lack of cooperation between education and industry.
Students leave school with a good grasp of theory but poor practical skills. There are a number of institutions where some soft skills, digital literacy, analytical thinking, communication skills and problem-solving skills are still in their infancy. In the meantime, however, sectors such as technology, renewable energy, logistics, advanced manufacturing and data services continue to develop at a greater pace than curriculum reforms. This leads to a mismatch economy, one in which there are jobs available and people who are not working.
The social aspect of long-term exclusion of youth is also a concern. Economically frustrated young people in a large number can create the disintegration of social cohesion and vulnerability to crime, extremism, misinformation and political manipulation. Throughout history, when young people come to doubt the fairness of the opportunities for economic progress, social unrest seems to grow more pronounced.
However, Bangladesh is not a demographic problem at the moment. It is a management challenge of the demography. A young population may be a great asset or the biggest structural pressure, depending on the effectiveness of the system of employment design. The policy reply needs to go beyond recruitment drives and specific training programmes. It is required to devise a coordinated employment policy, connected to education, industry, technology, entrepreneurship and regional development.
The first is shifting the focus from degree- to employment-oriented learning in universities. Here, we need to ensure that the redesign of the curriculum is done in consultation with industry and policy-makers as well as employers so that the graduates are prepared to meet the changing needs of the market and not the theoretical needs.
Second, entrepreneurship should be conceptualised as an economic system, not as a motivational mantra. Entrepreneurs have access to less money and more paperwork, less support from other entrepreneurs and less support from the government. Entrepreneurship rhetoric can become detached from reality if not accompanied by a structure that supports entrepreneurship in practice.
Thirdly, there is a need to invest more in future-oriented sectors which can create skilled jobs. Opportunities exist in the field of artificial intelligence, green industries and services, digital services, climate adaptation technologies and research-based innovation provided that they can be promoted by strategic and targeted policy incentives.
Fourth, there needs to be a remedy for regional economic inequality. Job prospects are still significantly skewed towards urban areas, especially Dhaka. Increased investment in industry and technology in non-metropolitan areas may help to lessen migration pressure and promote regional balance.
Last but not least, national discourses need to be more truthful about the quality of employment. Underemployment, insecure work and the disappointment of graduates in positions that are not commensurate with their education and skills cannot be measured through employment statistics. Policy-making must be for not just job creation, but for productive, dignified and future-oriented jobs.
Bangladesh is in a critical economic juncture. Youthfulness is one of the greatest assets of the nation, but demographic advantage is not sufficient to ensure national prosperity. If the demographic dividend is not translated into productive jobs, it can slowly turn into an economic burden tomorrow.
Youth unemployment is not only a matter of lost income. It is also lost momentum, lost confidence and ultimately lost national capability. Without a substantial portion of the educated youth feeling economically visible, it is impossible to imagine a nation-making sustainable progress towards ‘smartness.’
The challenge, therefore, is not whether Bangladesh has talented young people. It clearly does. The question is whether the economy, institutions and policy structures are prepared to fully use them before disappointment turns into permanent disengagement.
Md Mominur Rahman ([email protected]) is an assistant professor at the Bangladesh Institute of Governance and Management and Mohammed Mizanur Rahman ([email protected]) is a post-doctoral research fellow at UCSI University, Malaysia.
