The Indian envoy flying back to Delhi within hours of meeting Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, to be followed by an audience with Prime Minister Modi the following day, should indicate India’s willingness in rebuilding its relations with Bangladesh. Coincidentally, the head of India’s foreign intelligence agency Research and Analysis Wing (Raw), Parag Jain, was also in town the same day that High Commissioner Dinesh Trivedi met Tarique.

This came within less than a week of Bangladesh’s ousted prime minister, Sheikh Hasina’s much publicised event at the Foreign Correspondents Club of South Asia in Delhi on August 5 (despite Dhaka’s pre-emptive caution) followed by a rather explosive protest, which notably lacked diplomatic nuance. Delhi’s response, however, was much more subtle and reserved. India clarified that it had nothing to do with the event and that it was privately organised. The Indian foreign office spokesperson said his country did not endorse the remarks made by Hasina about the ‘duly constituted’ government in Bangladesh.

This change in the Modi government’s articulation now is noticeable from the interim government’s tenure when Delhi acted rather like it had lost a colony in August 2024 and was forced to evacuate its viceroy. The message has been clear from even before BNP won the election. India’s overtures clearly indicated that it would be willing to engage with Tarique Rahman and since he has been elected to office, Delhi is ready to, at least mend the strained relations if not strengthen them further.

But in all this, another message should also be quite clear. The Modi government does not appear inclined to keep Hasina from conducting political activities on Indian soil. So long as the events are organised ‘privately’ the Indian government will not take any initiative to stop it. It has not done so yet. And there has been no commitment that it will in future.

All this has become a topic of discussion because the Bangladeshi premier has been invited to attend a session of the BRICS summit in September, as BIMSTEC chair. India has strained to point out that Tarique has also been invited as the Bangladesh prime minister already, when the point was raised. Randhir Jaiswal said India had, in fact, invited Tarique Rahman for bilateral visit as well as the BRICS outreach session. But of late, it appears both governments are considering a bilateral visit as soon as next week, somewhat laying to rest the speculation that with the Indian government not clamping down on Hasina, Tarique’s visit remains uncertain.

While Hasina remains unapologetic about her regime’s deadly crackdown on protesters in July 2024 and execution of hundreds of protesters, the ousted prime minister’s incendiary remarks have been particularly more stinging for the opposition alliance of Jamaat-e-Islami and the NCP, the natural heirs of July uprising. Hence the opposition has stressed on the point that Hasina must be extradited and made to face justice before bilateral relations can warm up. One cannot help but remark on what might appear to be a contradiction here.

Jamaat and NCP demand Hasina’s extradition but are rankled every time she announces her return. Perhaps it is the idea of an ousted autocrat returning on her own terms (as a grand homecoming) rather than theirs (as a convict being extradited) that riles them up. Also, the opposition has been quite vocal about its anti-Indian stance, and will continue to whip up the public’s strong anti-Indian sentiment. People are not likely to forget how the neighbouring government had always been, and remains, a source of strength for Hasina’s regime.

Bangladesh government, had also indicated on its part that it is willing to engage with India. It is only prudent for Bangladesh to maintain working relations with its larger neighbour. Also, Tarique’s visit to China, before India, and warming relations with the other Asian giant has surely caused some consternation in Delhi. The Modi government’s perceptible urgency could possibly be ascribed to this changing geopolitical calculus India faces in its own backyard. The possibility of an earlier meeting between Tarique and Modi, rather than a later one could be a welcome response to that.

But Tarique will have to strike a balance at home before he can balance his government’s relations abroad. He will have to persuade a public and political constituency deeply hostile to Hasina that improving ties with Delhi does not mean compromising on the demand for justice but rather an opportunity to double down on it. At the same time, Delhi has hopefully learnt that its relationship with Bangladesh cannot simply be based on its relations with one political leader.