The report that point-to-point inflation fell to 8.32 per cent in July from 9.16 per cent in June is no doubt worth noting. According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), this is the lowest headline rate in eight months. Food inflation dropped to 7.16 per cent from 8.60 per cent, while non-food inflation eased to 9.28 per cent from 9.61 per cent. The 12-month moving average, too, declined marginally to 8.66 per cent. Evidently, any respite from the relentlessly rising living costs is welcome, especially when high inflation has for years eroded the purchasing power of the common people. But the latest rate still remains above the government's 7.5 per cent target for FY2026-27. So, one improved monthly figure, however encouraging on paper, cannot be treated as evidence that the battle against high prices has been won.

In fact, the experience of regular visitors to the kitchen market does not square convincingly with the statistically found decline. Prices of vegetables, fishes and other daily essentials appeared  as volatile as ever during July, with an increase in one item often cancelling relief from another. True, lower inflation does not mean lower prices; it means only that prices are rising more slowly. Also, individual commodities carry different weights in the consumer price index (CPI), and a rise in a lower-weight item may have limited impact on the headline rate. But such statistical explanations are of little help to low-income consumers if the necessaries they buy every day continue to strain their budgets. The national Wage Rate Index rose by 8.22 per cent in July, yet it remained below headline inflation, leaving real-wage growth negative for the 53rd consecutive month. Small wonder that an inflation decline not felt in the kitchen market would sound abstract to families forced to cut expenditure on nutrition, healthcare and education to make ends meet.

There is also the question of official data's credibility. During the last autocratic Awami  regime, economic indicators including GDP growth, export earnings and inflation rate used to be manipulated to suit the regime's preferred development narrative. The state statistical agency thus suffered a serious loss of public trust. Unlike in that period, one would like to trust the BBS-provided headline inflation rate, particularly under the present popularly elected BNP government, which has pledged transparent and accountable governance.  The incumbent Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury on Wednesday firmly dismissed allegations of doctoring of inflation data, saying that government needs credible data for sound policymaking. Public faith in economic data, however, cannot be restored merely with the change of government; it has to be earned through transparency, professional independence and close correspondence between official figures and realities on the ground.

Against this backdrop, policymakers should welcome the July decline without becoming complacent. Seasonal supply, subdued demand, fiscal steps and tight monetary policy might have aided the easing. Also, the impact of the Bangladesh Bank's August 2 policy-rate cut to 9.5 per cent on future prices bears watching. At the same time, the government has to address the structural causes of food inflation. A study by a local policy think tank identified supply shortages, traders' collusion and hoarding among the frequent causes of high food prices, while Bangladesh's logistics costs remained at 16 per cent of GDP against a global benchmark of 10 per cent. That is concerning. Strict market monitoring, curbs on extortion and investment in storage, cold chains, etc.,  are imperative. Timely import and duty decisions should prevent artificial shortages without harming local growers. Targeted open-market sales and social protection must continue until real wages recover. The government must ensure that the decline shown in inflation statistics becomes credible in the kitchen market and meaningful in the lives of low-income consumers.