In its first 100 days in office, the BNP government has found itself navigating a turbulent global landscape, shaped by the US-Israel war on Iran and geopolitical rivalry among major powers, which is causing energy insecurity and mounting economic pressure at home.
The government entered office with expectation that it would carry out drastic reforms, but external crises forced it into immediate diplomatic firefighting.
The administration surprised many by appointing Khalilur Rahman, national security adviser under the Yunus-led interim administration, as technocrat foreign minister.
It had little time to articulate its “Bangladesh First” foreign policy doctrine, while Khailur Rahman embarked on intensive overseas travel linked to campaign for the presidency of the UN General Assembly (UNGA).
WAR
The US-Israel war on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory moves in the Gulf left the economy highly vulnerable as Bangladesh’s heavily depends on imported fuel, LNG and fertilizer.
“The government’s immediate focus shifted toward securing alternative supply chains and stabilising fuel imports,” said Parvez Karim Abbasi, assistant professor of Economics at East West University and executive director of the Centre for Governance Studies.
Despite taking on short-term loans, the government managed the initial fuel crisis, he said.
At the same time, Gulf instability renewed concerns over the safety of millions of Bangladeshi migrant workers, many of whom reported job losses.
Amena Mohsin, former professor of International Relations at Dhaka University, said the crisis exposed the absence of a robust long-term strategy for migrant protection during geopolitical shocks.
She said Bangladesh, despite having close ties with Iran, avoided taking a strong position during the conflict and instead limited itself to expressions of concern.
TIES WITH WASHINGTON
Bangladesh-US relations had deteriorated during the final years of the Awami League government before improving under the interim administration.
The BNP government moved to maintain that trajectory by honouring agreements signed by the interim government, including the Reciprocal Trade Agreement (RTA), purchase of 14 Boeing aircraft, and a major gas deal.
The RTA, however, came under criticism, particularly over provisions concerning trade with economies like that of China and Russia.
Amena Mohsin described the agreement as controversial because it potentially places Bangladesh in a “subservient position”. She argued the treaty should be debated in parliament and reviewed.
Abbasi, however, viewed the BNP’s decision as pragmatic, saying the government acknowledged the USA’s status as the world’s primary economic powerhouse and its influence over institutions like the World Bank and IMF.
Bangladesh continues to enjoy a large trade surplus with the US, he said.
At the same time, relationship with the European Union remains critical for Bangladesh’s transition from Least Developed Country (LDC) status and access to GSP Plus trade facilities. The EU collectively imports nearly $30 billion worth of Bangladeshi products annually.
“A major upcoming challenge involves balancing American interests with those of European partners,” Abbasi said.
European actors have already questioned Dhaka’s preference for Boeing while Airbus proposals remained pending.
TIES WITH INDIA
Relations with India, strained during the interim administration, have shown signs of both improvement and tension during the BNP government’s first 100 days.
Former ambassador to Libya M Shafiullah described India’s early engagement with the BNP government as warm. Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman’s first major bilateral visit was to India before travelling to China.
Yet, underlying tensions remain due to the anti-Bangladesh rhetoric during election campaigns in Assam and West Bengal. It prompted Dhaka to summon Indian Deputy High Commissioner Pawan Badhe in protest, while Delhi raised concerns over illegal immigration.
The unresolved Teesta water-sharing agreement and renewal of the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty are likely to become major tests, Shafiullah said.
Amena Mohsin argued that recent political changes in West Bengal may create a new opening because the BJP now governs both Delhi and Kolkata.
CHINA REMAINS ESSENTIAL
While engaging Washington and trying to repair ties with India, the BNP government has simultaneously maintained good relations with China, Bangladesh’s largest infrastructure and development partner.
The most sensitive issue may emerge around the Teesta river management project.
“If Bangladesh proceeds with China, there is apprehension India might divert more water upstream,” warned Shafiullah, former senior research fellow at the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies.
For now, Dhaka appears determined to maintain strategic flexibility, rather than align too closely with any single power bloc.
Still, one foreign policy analyst, requesting anonymity, said it remains unclear how effectively the BNP government will balance relations between Washington and Beijing.
QUESTIONS OVER PRIORITIES
A highly visible aspect of the government’s diplomacy has been Khalilur Rahman’s extensive overseas travel linked to Bangladesh’s UNGA presidency campaign.
Supporters view the effort as an opportunity to elevate Bangladesh’s diplomatic standing internationally.
Critics, however, question whether prestige diplomacy, which does not provide much advantage to the country like the membership to UN Security Council does, risks overshadowing pressing bilateral and economic priorities.
POLICY STILL TAKING SHAPE
Analysts say while 100 days is too short to deliver a verdict on the BNP government’s foreign policy, a broader pattern begins to emerge.
The government appears focused on rebuilding international confidence, practicing multi-alignment among major powers, and prioritising economic diplomacy over ideological positioning.
Amena Mohsin said Bangladesh is also trying to maintain an equidistant regional position. Its core policy remains neither Delhi or Rawalpindi.
Yet, several major issues remain largely untouched, particularly the Rohingya crisis, climate change, long-term migrant protection and institutional reform within Bangladesh’s diplomatic system.
Shafiullah argued that Bangladesh needs a more professional diplomatic corps where changes in government do not disrupt recruitment and transfers within the foreign ministry.
Abbasi said the success of the BNP government’s foreign policy will depend on how effectively political leaders and bureaucrats synchronise policy.
They suggest that Bangladesh focus on strengthening the foreign office, improving coordination among ministries, and protecting interests related to exports, migrant welfare, climate change and foreign investment.
