The dust has finally settled on the 13th parliamentary elections, with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) securing a landslide two-thirds majority in a 300-seat parliament. The election not only restored democracy but also paved the way for the formation of a government with a genuine popular mandate for the first time since 2008. But what happens now will be far more consequential for the country's future. Formidable challenges await the next government.
The incoming government is taking the helm at a time when the country is under pressure on all fronts. The prolonged absence of an elected government has deeply polarised society, and political tensions have remained high in the run up to the election. It is now time to lower the political temperature. Retaliatory attacks on supporters of opposition candidates, as have already been reported after the polls, will only inflame tensions at a time when stability is crucial to address the pressing challenges ahead.
Most consequential for the country's future will be the government's ability to address an economy in critical condition. The economy has been in the ICU when the interim government took the helm after mass uprising, and it has managed to move it to the general ward, as claimed by the outgoing government's Finance Advisor. The next government's challenge now will be to nurse it back to full health.
The interim government has take some encouraging steps such as restoring discipline in the banking sector, and taking steps to separate tax policy from administration and giving full autonomy to the Bangladesh Bank. However, the non-performing loans ratio remained alarmingly high. Moreover, despite issuing a gazette notification to separate the National Board of Revenue (NBR), the much-anticipated reform could not be effectively implemented due to alleged non-cooperation from the public administration department.
The government also fell short of amending the Bangladesh Bank Order, 1972, to ensure full autonomy of the central bank, ostensibly because of opposition from bureaucrats on the BB board. Furthermore, the initiative to enhance the capacity of Chittagong Port by bringing in a foreign operator also fell flat due to protests from labour unions. A political government is expected to be in a better position to deal with these thorny issues and bring about meaningful institutional reforms.
At the same time, exports are struggling under new global tariff pressures, private investment is shrinking, and economic growth has slowed to its lowest level in over a decade. Without serious and urgent course correction, the country risks sliding into prolonged stagnation.
The government must also implement the reforms outlined in the July Charter. Nearly 70 per cent of voters endorsed sweeping constitutional changes in a referendum, including the introduction of a limit to prime minister's term and the creation of an upper house empowered to check the lower one. These measures are designed to safeguard Bangladesh's restored democracy. Failure to implement the reforms would reinforce the perception that the political transformation has been largely cosmetic.
Perhaps the most important challenge in the years ahead will be meeting the aspirations of Bangladesh's youthful population. With roughly 70 per cent of the population under 30 and about 2.7 million young people entering job market each year, the country needs to create over a million new jobs annually, while equipping the rest with the skills necessary to compete in overseas markets. Beyond jobs, the young generation also wants establishment good governance in the administration.Growing radicalisation and the state's ability to prevent violent extremism also demand urgent attention. If the new government misjudges these pivotal challenges, the country risks sliding back into turbulence.
Te road ahead is bumpy. An astute and courageous leadership will be required to navigate it deftly.
