Bangladesh's merchandise exports have declined for the fourth consecutive month, as the reciprocal tariff measures by the United States and a slump in global demand continue to weigh on the apparel sector, the backbone of the country's export industry.
According to latest data from the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), November exports amounted to $3.89 billion, down 5.54 percent compared with $4.11 billion in the same month last year.
Garments, which account for over 80 percent of the national export earnings, remained the largest category, bringing in roughly $3.14 billion in November, a 4.8 percent decline from $3.30 billion recorded in the same month last year.
October's exports had fetched $3.82 billion.
Despite a modest overall growth of 0.09 percent during July–November, amounting to $16.13 billion, the breakdown shows the knitwear segment fetched $8.85 billion and woven garments $7.27 billion, with knitwear falling 7 percent and woven garments slipping 3 percent in November compared with a year ago.
Industry leaders attribute the slump to reduced order volumes from major markets such as the European Union and the US, triggered by the newly applied reciprocal tariffs and global buyer caution.
First, US buyers have delayed placement of new orders following the increased tariffs on apparel imports, said Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA) President Mohammad Hatem.
"As US tariffs have increased, buyers are now trying to shift part of the cost burden onto Bangladeshi garment manufacturers, which we simply cannot absorb," he explained.
Second, he said there is a notable shift in the EU market, where buyers are increasingly sourcing from lower-cost producers in China and India.
"Because Chinese and Indian manufacturers have slashed prices to reclaim orders lost from the US, EU buyers are turning to them for more competitive rates," Hatem added.
These twin pressures have created a tough environment for Bangladesh's garment exporters, Hatem noted, adding, "We expect this crisis to continue for at least the next three to four months."
He also said most buyers are placing only small, minimum-volume orders to keep their operations running.
Meanwhile, Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) President Mahmud Hasan Khan said the decline in garments export is largely owed to external market pressures and domestic challenges.
He said most competitor countries are witnessing similar declines, except Pakistan.
"Buyers in major markets changed their purchasing patterns earlier in the year," he noted, "as tariff concerns prompted many to stockpile basic items in July. Since these products can be stored for months, fresh orders have slowed."
Khan added that rising global prices have dampened consumer demand, further weakening apparel exports.
The BGMEA president also stated that several garment factories have already shut down and more may close in the coming months.
However, he said, "This will not necessarily cause a sharp fall in export earnings, as production is increasingly shifting toward larger and more efficient factories."
On prospects of export rising after Christmas, Khan said the Western holiday sales season is not a strong indicator for Bangladesh, since shipments for that period are completed by October or November.
"Although some rebound is possible, I expect limited improvement in new orders," he said.
He added that political uncertainty ahead of national elections has made buyers more cautious, reducing their willingness to place new orders in the near term.
Meanwhile, exports of plastic goods experienced a 15.5 percent fall to stand at $24.5 million compared to nearly $29 million in November 2024.
RN Paul, managing director of major plastic exporter RFL Group, however said the decline is largely owed to delays in shipment than a persisting issue.
"Our export performance fluctuates month to month. Sometimes we have three to four shipments going out in one month, and sometimes a shipment gets delayed, which was the case last month," Paul explained.
He clarified that the drop does not reflect a loss in demand. "Some of our shipments were delayed in the previous cycle and are now scheduled to go out this month. So, we expect an improvement in the coming weeks."
Paul expressed optimism that export volumes will rebound soon, attributing the temporary decline to logistical factors rather than weakening market fundamentals.
M Shahadat Hossain Sohel, managing director of Towel Tex Limited, linked the downturn to declining global demand, particularly in major markets like the United States and Canada. "Consumers are prioritising basic necessities and seeking the lowest prices. Luxury and fashion items are not selling."
He said Bangladesh's export sector is facing a significant decline amid worsening global economic conditions.
"In our terry towel exports, the decline is even steeper, around 40 percent," he said.
Sohel further remarked that the impact of global conflicts is now being overtaken by an "economic war."
Among other major sectors, leather and leather products recorded a 5.14 percent growth, reaching $99 million, up from last year's $94.15 million; agricultural goods, however, fell 24.68 percent to $82.78 million from $109.90 million; chemical products grew 8.35 percent to reach $30.49 million.
