Efforts to end the Middle East war appeared at a standstill yesterday, with the US considering Tehran’s latest offer to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran saying Washington could no longer dictate terms.
Iran has blockaded the waterway -- a vital conduit for oil and gas shipments -- since the start of the US-Israeli offensive two months ago, sending shockwaves through the global economy.
The impasse yesterday drove oil prices above $110 per barrel.
CNN reported that US President Donald Trump was unlikely to accept Iran’s proposal to restore traffic in the strait, as Qatar warned of the possibility of a “frozen conflict” if a definitive resolution is not found.
“We do not want to see a return to hostilities in the region anytime soon, we do not want to see a frozen conflict that ends up being thawed every time there is a political reason,” Qatari foreign ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari said at a press conference.
While a ceasefire has halted the fighting, diplomacy aimed at permanently ending the war has proven inconclusive.
“We are very keen to see an end to this war that is sustainable,” Ansari added.
Trump met with top security advisors on Monday to discuss the Iranian proposal after Tehran passed “written messages” to Washington via Pakistan spelling out its red lines, including on nuclear issues and Hormuz, Iran’s Fars news agency reported.
The proposal was “being discussed,” spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told a White House briefing.
The plan would reportedly see Tehran ease its chokehold on the strait and Washington lift its retaliatory blockade on Iranian ports while broader negotiations continue, including over the thorny question of Iran’s nuclear programme.
But CNN, citing two sources familiar with the matter, said Trump had signaled at Monday’s meeting that he was reluctant to take Hormuz off the table without resolving the nuclear question, though it was unclear what his next steps would be.
Trump yesterday claimed that Iran has said it was in a state of collapse and wants the US to open the Strait of Hormuz while it sorts out its leadership.
“Iran has just informed us that they are in a ‘State of Collapse.’ They want us to ‘Open the Hormuz Strait,’ as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation (Which I believe they will be able to do!)” Trump said in a social media post.
Iranian defence ministry spokesman Reza Talaei-Nik yesterday said that Washington “must abandon its illegal and irrational demands.”
“The United States is no longer in a position to dictate its policy to independent nations,” he said, according to state TV.
Asked about Iran’s proposal, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News “it’s better than what we thought they were going to submit,” but questioned whether it was genuine.
“They’re very good negotiators,” he said, “and we have to ensure that any deal that is made, any agreement that is made, is one that definitively prevents them from sprinting towards a nuclear weapon at any point.”
Tehran would need guarantees that Washington and Israel would not attack again if it was to offer security assurances for the Gulf, Iran’s envoy to the UN said.
TRUMP MAY DECLARE VICTORY!
Iran’s blockade of Hormuz has cut off flows of oil, gas and fertiliser and sent prices soaring. As the deal prospects dimmed, Oil prices rallied, with Brent crude for June delivery rising 2.8 percent to $111.26 a barrel. The benchmark US contract, WTI for June delivery, rose 3.4 percent to $99.62 per barrel.
Meanwhile, two US officials, on condition of anonymity, said that US intelligence agencies are studying how Iran would respond if Trump were to declare a unilateral victory in the two-month-old war.
The intelligence community is analyzing the question along with others at the request of senior administration officials. The goal is to understand the implications of Trump potentially pulling back from a conflict that some officials and advisers worry could contribute to deep Republican losses at the midterm elections later this year, according to the sources.
While no decision has been made -- and Trump could easily ramp back up military operations -- a quick de-escalation could ease political pressure on the president, even as it could leave behind an emboldened Iran that could eventually rebuild its nuclear and missile programs and threaten US allies in the region.
Opinion polls show the war is overwhelmingly unpopular with Americans. Only 26% of respondents in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week said the military campaign has been worth the costs.
Trump’s approval rating also sank to the lowest level of his current term, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll. The four-day poll completed on Monday showed 34% of Americans approve of Trump’s performance in the White House, down from 36% in a prior Reuters/Ipsos survey, which was conducted from April 15 to 20.
Three people familiar with White House discussions in recent days have described Trump as keenly aware of the political price being paid by him and his party.
Various military options remain formally on the table, with renewed airstrikes on Iran’s military and political leaders among them, according to a separate person familiar with administration dynamics.
One of the US officials and another person familiar with the discussions said, however, that the most ambitious of those options - such as a ground invasion of the Iranian mainland - appear less likely than they did a few weeks ago.
