I am writing this article to convey a very strong message. Water is a natural resource. It is essential for life. It is essential for economic development. It is essential for ensuring food security. It is essential for human health. I can give more parameters to explain why water is an element of life.

On an annual basis, we have enough water to meet our demand. But on a seasonal basis, the distribution is highly unfavourable to satisfy the demands and requirements of various competing sectors. I shall try to compare availability, demand, opportunities for development, and constraints to show why water is both a bane and a boon. Very briefly, I shall try to establish that we are fast approaching a crisis in managing this vital natural resource, which is finite in supply.

The popular notion has been that we have surplus water. But Bangladesh presents a paradoxical situation; at one part of the year, we have more water than we need—many people consider it to be surplus—but without considering the needs of the environment and ecology, this view must be adjusted. On the other hand, at other times of the year, the supply dwindles and becomes inadequate to meet all sectoral demands—and there are situations of serious shortfall. Very soon, this shortfall or shortage will become a major element in our life and livelihood management.

We have many laws and policy documents for the sustainable management of water resources, but we do not follow them, and thus we are on the road to a major crisis. Our Constitution demands that we protect our nature and wetlands. The time has come to evaluate various aspects and issues related to the effective management of this important natural resource and to apply policy statements and laws prudently and effectively.

Bangladesh is at a crossroads in the domain of water management. Bangladesh pushes for ‘water development’ at the expense of huge funds, but completed projects soon become ineffective due to the absence of ‘water management’ practices. The question now is—shall we continue to pursue the path that we are following? Or shall we make radical changes in our approach? Will it be possible to make changes in our management style? Do we have a proper understanding of the constraints? Do we have a proper understanding of where we are making mistakes? Do we have proper plans and capacity, including human capital, to shift our course in the right direction?

In short, my answer to the aforesaid questions is a loud no. Unless we correct our course towards water resources management, we are in for difficult days; future generations will blame us for not taking the right decisions, even now. Let us examine the issues.

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The first point I would like to make is that water availability comprises surface water, groundwater, and rainwater. It is seasonal variability that causes the problem. In the monsoon months, availability from all three sources is very high, often far exceeding demand. In the dry and winter months, the quantity of rainfall is almost negligible, the level of groundwater drops significantly, and surface supply becomes very low.

This situation is further aggravated as surface water coming from upstream regions diminishes, and most of the small rivers almost dry up. In the absence of any agreement with the upper riparian country, this situation may become even more acute in the coming years. The solution to this concern is largely dependent on political relationships. In the dry season, we are almost totally dependent on groundwater.

The three major river systems of the country—namely, the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, and the Meghna—carry some flow, but we do not use it for crop production. Some water from these three major rivers is pumped to nearby major cities for drinking purposes. Over-dependence on groundwater and lack of rainfall are major obstacles to the smooth management of water resources during the dry season.

My point here is that insufficient consideration of seasonal variability in our planning and water utilisation processes has been made, and this needs to be rectified.

In planning and management, the looming threat of climate change and the increasing impact of global warming will make water availability more unpredictable as well as more unmanageable. Rainfall patterns are going to change during the peak period of the monsoon (June, July, and August). Rainfall may be lower compared to average conditions. Rainfall may also be higher during the pre-monsoon period (April and May) as well as in the post-monsoon period (August and September). This will create unfavourable conditions at different times of the year and in different locations across the country. North-Western Bangladesh—that is, the Rangpur, Bogra, and Dinajpur areas—as well as the Rajshahi region, may experience long periods of very low rainfall. This could create drought-like situations that hamper the monsoon crop, Aman.

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The incidence of both floods and droughts will create additional complexity. Early flash floods in the north-eastern and northern areas—mainly in the Sylhet and Mymensingh districts—as well as in central and eastern areas, namely Comilla, may occur more frequently. To protect the dry season rice (Boro crop) in these areas, the use of submersible dikes has been considered the correct approach. This is a 100-year-old technique that has been practised since the creation of Bangladesh in the 1970s. However, this system to protect crops has failed, as has happened several times over the last four to five decades. These failures are the result of improper water management practices.

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The timing, intensity, frequency, and duration of monsoon floods are also changing. With an increasing population, people have settled in locations such as riverbanks and coastal shores, and in low-lying floodplains, etc. These areas are regularly submerged. These vulnerable areas often have ineffective protection, making the level of misery faced by affected people more acute compared to a situation with no protection at all. As rainfall intensity is set to increase, as is happening elsewhere in the world, the problem of drainage congestion will rise. Cities and towns are becoming more vulnerable in the coming days. Cities like Dhaka are going to face serious drainage congestion very soon.

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In professional life, we observe an almost total absence of coordination among agencies and organisations responsible for managing water. Controlled water availability is an important aspect of crop production, especially for paddy. If we take a broad and simplified approach to evaluating the major factors that control rice productivity, then we can identify three such factors. Again, I am overgeneralising and speaking in broad terms. These factors are: i) the quality of seeds, ii) other essential inputs such as fertilisers and insecticides, and iii) control over water availability. I am assuming that the quality and productivity of land resources are non-variable issues. At this stage, I am considering that the first two parameters guide productivity levels, and that the third element—control over water supply—is essential to regulate overall production. Too much water (that is, flooding) and too little water (that is, drought-like conditions) are the major challenges here.

We used to grow different varieties of rice. In the pre-Bangladesh period, submergence-tolerant deep-water varieties were grown, but the yield of these varieties was less than one tonne per hectare. By switching to varieties that must be grown in flood-free conditions and that require adequate irrigation—varieties that are high-yielding—we now produce 4–7 tonnes per hectare. Of course, the use of quality seeds and adequate quantities of fertilisers and other inputs are the drivers of our success in the agriculture sector. But the management of water is an unavoidable condition.

Aman, grown during the monsoon period, was once the main food grain of the country, and national attention was directed towards flood management to protect the monsoon crop in the pre-independence era. Since the 1970s, the introduction of the high-yielding Boro variety has overtaken Aman production. For this crop, winter irrigation is sine qua non. This crop may also suffer from early flash floods. For managing low rainfall or drought-like conditions, particularly during dry periods, we are over-dependent on groundwater—surface water is not available in the regional rivers.

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So far, my focus has centred on rice production. But what about the demand for human consumption? There is a statement by Benjamin Franklin that “a wandering traveller in a desert understands the value of drinking water when he finds the well dry.” All over the world, it is recognised that the availability of safe drinking water at an affordable price is a basic human right. Is our water safe to drink? Being uncertain, we have shifted towards costly commercially available bottled water.

Drinking water is mostly managed by women in rural areas. They often need to walk 5–6 kilometres to collect just a pitcher of drinking water for the family. This problem is particularly acute in the coastal belt.

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The problem stated in the aforesaid paragraph is becoming more critical and acute in the coastal belt, where water is becoming saline. This is driven by global warming, which leads to sea-level rise and pushes salinity levels further inland. It appears that in 50 years’ time, the southern one-third of Bangladesh will become as salty as seawater. Drinking water is already a major social and economic problem in the south-western districts of Khulna, Satkhira, Bagerhat, and Barguna. Production of rice has also become a problematic issue in these areas. I am told that even the production of shrimp varieties grown in these areas is facing problems.

It is urgent that agricultural practices, including the types of crops to be grown, are evaluated. While sunflowers (for oil), watermelon, and beetroot have already been introduced in these areas, the question is whether we are ready to explore the possibility of sugar production based on beetroot. Returning to the topic of the previous paragraph, access to an adequate water supply for the purposes of sanitation and hygiene remains critically low in many regions of the country. Water for drinking purposes, sanitation, and health (WASH) is mostly managed by local communities, while people in townships and cities receive support from the state. I shall also add hygiene to water supply, sanitation, and health (WASH) for future considerations.

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In establishing the various uses of water, we categorise them into consumptive and non-consumptive uses. So far, I have discussed consumptive use, but we must also think about non-consumptive uses. Do fish drink water? No, but they need a watery environment for their growth as a basic condition of living. Wetlands demand a major ecological approach and natural resource management consideration.

We are drying up our wetlands to convert them into agricultural land and to expand our villages and urban areas. We convert wetlands into dry land, possibly based on a very wrong understanding that wetlands are wastelands. In our Constitution, Article 18A states that the protection of nature, forests, wetlands, and biodiversity is the responsibility of the state. Unfortunately, while this clause was being adopted, the term “river” was dropped by honourable members of Parliament. We need to re-evaluate our understanding of the non-consumptive uses of water.

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Now, we turn to another very important non-consumptive use: navigation. Over the last 100 years, we have focused on the development of road networks and railways. Not an iota of consideration has been given to the development of navigation facilities. Our neighbours have been pushing the development of Ashuganj as a gateway for the northern states. On the other hand, we have ignored and allowed major navigation routes in parts of Chilmari, Balashighat, Aricha, Bhairab Bazar, and Narayanganj to fall into oblivion.

For the movement of bulk non-perishable goods, navigation offers the cheapest mode for the nation. The cost of transportation using navigational facilities is one-sixth of that using roads in a riverine country with an existing intricate network of rivers across the country. However, the opportunity for navigation is limited by the seasonal operational levels of river routes. In the southern part of Bangladesh, where rivers are tidal, opportunities still exist. The steamer service in Khulna is dead. I feel bad about it.

Only strong government incentives, including fiscal support and regulatory pressure on road transport, can shift bulk cargo towards inland navigation. Let me repeat that I am advocating for the movement of bulk quantities of non-perishable goods.

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I would now like to discuss the marine areas of Bangladesh. Broadly categorised, we have tidal and non-tidal rivers. Then, within the tidal area, the land and water zones can be divided into four categories. The first is the coastal belt; the second is the territorial waters extending 12 kilometres from the coastline; the third is the exclusive economic zone, extending 250 kilometres offshore; and the fourth is the open water beyond the economic zone.

Management of coastal and marine water—whichever ministry is responsible is irrelevant—should extend from the high mountains to the deep coastal belt. The global slogan is to link Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) with Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM). We have ports, namely Mongla, Payra, Chittagong, Matarbari, and Cox’s Bazar. Only Matarbari is a deep seaport. In the current global context, the capacity of the other ports is inadequate. We need to re-evaluate our current planning and development processes for ports.

I do not understand why Bangladesh spends huge funds on Mongla and Payra ports. Mongla is located in a shallow-water area; by relocating it just a few kilometres south, either to Banishanta or Harbaria, it could be transformed into a deep-water port. However, for Payra Port, I see no future. The Payra River naturally develops a shallow sand bed extending up to 50 kilometres into the bay at its mouth, and it will continue to deposit such sandbars even if we spend thousands of takas on dredging. The southern part will remain shallow despite repeated dredging. Payra Port may function as an inland port.

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At this point, I would like to talk about our understanding of the rivers of our country. Let me boldly remind everyone that a river does not carry water alone. It also carries sediment. Water discharge must be balanced with the quantity of sediment it carries, and sediment is transported mostly as bedload. Sediment may consist of large boulders, small boulders, pebbles, small stones, coarse sand, medium sand, fine sand, silt, and clay particles. We need to develop a sound understanding of the nature of sediment at different locations along rivers, as well as the quantity of sediment involved. We do not collect data on sediment. This is a matter of national importance.

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Water has many users, and many government agencies are responsible for developing and managing it. We must shift our thinking from development to management. Disasters have a strong correlation with water-related issues. Besides floods and droughts, we must also think about clogged sedimentation routes. At the same time, we need to consider river erosion and the destruction of valuable land. One of the major causes of landslides is heavy rainfall.

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Short-duration heavy rainfall is a major challenge for urban areas. This creates drainage congestion problems. Are cities and towns prepared for this? Is Dhaka ready for 300–400 mm of rainfall in a single day? My answer is no. I fear that we may face such a situation, as this is already happening in parts of the Middle East.

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At this stage, let me turn to the institutional aspects. Who manages water? My answer is nobody. No one is mandated to do so with appropriate authority. Flood management is carried out by the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB). The Board focuses on development rather than management. The name of the organisation and its Terms of Reference or mandate may need to be changed from water development to water management. The current BWDB provides support to the agriculture sector, but there is little appreciation for the good work it has done so far. This is largely due to poor management practices.

Who is responsible for drainage congestion—the municipalities and city corporations? Do they have appropriate technical mandates? Who is responsible for water quality-related issues—the Department of Environment (DoE)? Yet the DoE cannot cope with the unabated levels of water pollution. The Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC) provides support to irrigation projects, but farmers themselves are responsible for irrigation using shallow and deep tubewells. There is a conflict between groundwater use for drinking purposes and irrigation for agriculture. Inland water is supposed to be managed by the Inland Water Transport Authority (IWTA) and the Ministry of Shipping. However, I could not find any organisation that supports the management of water for nature.

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Another important consideration for water management in Bangladesh is transboundary water. In my view, more than 100 transboundary rivers flow from India into Bangladesh. Other than this, only two or three very small rivers flow in the opposite direction. Effective management requires action at the highest political level. It cannot be negotiated by Water Ministry officials alone. To me, the current institutional arrangement is ineffective and unproductive. By 2027, we will reach a stage when the issue of transboundary water must be handled by political leadership rather than by bureaucrats or technocrats.

Let me conclude by saying that it is high time we took a completely fresh look at overall water management practices in the country. Water development can be both a bane and a boon. The beneficial part is reaching saturation very soon; therefore, we must bring the future into our planning process and, if possible, fundamentally recast our institutions.

Ainun Nishat, Ph.D. is Professor Emeritus at the Centre for Climate Change and Environmental Research.

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