Over the past one and a half decades, the term Gross Domestic Product or GDP became synonymous with development and the state-owned statistical agency and other official documents would occasionally come up with various data showing how the economy was on an ever-rising growth trajectory. Obviously, those were projected as the measure of the nation's development. Even the international development partners were convinced of those growth narratives and would praise the then-government for its success story of economic growth. Against this backdrop, economists have of late been coming up with research data that are unravelling the mismatch between growth, for instance, in the manufacturing sector and the rising rate of unemployment. Presented at a recently held discussion event styled "Beyond Jobless Growth: Towards an Employment-Centred Policy Framework for Bangladesh Through a Post-Neoliberal Lens", some study findings showed that the manufacturing sector despite recording an impressive annual rate of growth at around 10 per cent between 2013 and 2023, had shed 1.4 million jobs during that period. How can one explain this glaring mismatch between growth and unemployment at the same time?
It was found that in the export-oriented garment industry, fewer workers produced more value in terms of export earnings than before. In 2013, for instance, the industry required 220 workers to produce goods worth US$1.0 million in terms of export earnings. However, a decade later in 2024, the same amount of goods and matching export earnings could be generated by 94 workers. That was definitely good news for the investors who achieved such success through adoption of modern technology that increased productivity of the industry manifold, but at a cost. While one cannot deny the industry's higher level of productivity and earnings that go with it, but at the same time it creates a fresh crisis for the policymakers resulting from the massive job cuts. How can these dichotomous developments in the macro-economy be reconciled? Growth is no doubt a priority before the investors in the manufacturing industries such as the export-driven ones, but the question that would also arise at the same time is, growth for whom? And this issue is especially problematic for a country where about 3.0 million people are entering the job market annually. So, creating jobs for the fresh millions joining the workforce every year should be the topmost priority before the government as well as the development thinkers.
Unsurprisingly, some experts at the said discussion event blamed the deepening employment crisis on what they termed disproportionate focus on a single industrial sector, namely, the Readymade Garment (RMG). This, no doubt, created an imbalance affecting the rest of the economy. For when the RMG-led manufacturing has been experiencing significant rise in terms of growth, the agriculture that absorbs the overwhelming proportion of the growing workforce went through a decline as its contribution to the GDP fell markedly from its previous level. This calls for incentivising more agro-based industries including the start-ups in the sector. That may help reduce the job loss on a massive scale like the manufacturing sector suffered over the last one decade.
Overall, it is time for a rethink on the part of both the government and the economic expert about getting the priorities for growth and employment right. While the economists are rightly blaming government policies and explaining the existing economic realities through different terminologies such as 'triangle of vicious cycles' and so on, the real challenge would be to come up with the correct guidelines for the policymakers and the businesses to follow. It goes without saying that the right model for the economic growth should be the one that creates more jobs and ensures growth at the same time.
