India’s semifinal hopes in the T20 World Cup 2026 have become complicated after their 76-run defeat to the South Africa in Ahmedabad on Sunday.

The loss not only ended India’s 12-match winning streak in the tournament but also severely damaged their net run rate (NRR), which has dropped to -3.800. That figure could prove decisive if teams finish level on points in the Super Eights.

What India need to do

1. Win both remaining matches (Best-case scenario)
India must win their next two Super Eight matches:
vs Zimbabwe in Chennai
vs West Indies in Kolkata

If they win both games, they will finish with four points from three matches in the Super Eights. That should be enough to qualify for the semifinals unless two other teams also reach four points. In that case, qualification will be decided by net run rate, meaning India must aim for convincing wins to repair their negative NRR.

2. Win one match (Risky scenario)

If India win only one of their remaining matches, qualification will depend on:

South Africa winning all their remaining games, and
Net run rate comparisons among tied teams.
In this situation, India’s poor NRR could become a major disadvantage.

3. Lose one more match (Elimination likely)
If India lose either to Zimbabwe or West Indies, their semifinal chances will most likely end. A washout could also complicate matters depending on other results.

The bottom line

India’s equation is simple:
Win both matches.
Win by big margins to improve net run rate.
Avoid depending on other results.