There is no easy way to see clearly what is happening in Iran. Everyone is interpreting reality through their own lens. One group says the Islamic Revolution is not easy to subdue; no matter how hard the United States or Israel tries, this system of rule will survive. Another group believes the revolutionary government in Iran has been so deeply eroded from within that a single strong blow could cause the religious ruling establishment to collapse.

This February, Iran’s Islamic Revolution will enter its 47th year. Over these nearly five decades, the country has witnessed at least half a dozen major uprisings and mass protests. Each time, foreign observers have said that this must be the end of the revolution. Even three years ago, after the death of Kurdish young woman Mahsa Amini in state custody triggered nationwide protests, many thought the regime would not survive. But the government managed to contain the situation then as well. This time, however, the situation truly appears different.

The main reason is that the people of Iran have learned to face death. With the state of the economy, the paths to survival are almost blocked. Simply deploying the military or firing artillery can no longer suppress the population. Today’s Iran is reminiscent of Bangladesh in July–August 2024, where even firing from helicopters could not quell the protests. The current fiery situation in Iran is being driven primarily by the country’s younger generation—both women and men—much like the Monsoon Revolution in Bangladesh.