Bangladesh’s economy is set to cross a historic milestone as the size of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to surpass the half-trillion-dollar mark in the current fiscal year (FY2025-26), according to provisional estimates released by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

The country’s nominal GDP is projected to rise to $501 billion in FY26, up from $456 billion in the previous fiscal year, marking a significant expansion in the size of the economy, according to the BBS report on Wednesday.

Alongside the higher economic output, per capita national income is estimated to increase sharply to $3,020, registering a rise of $251 or 9.06 per cent from $2,769 recorded in FY2024-25.

The latest estimates also indicate a moderate recovery in economic growth, while real GDP growth is estimated to grow by 4.14 per cent in FY26 from 3.49 per cent in FY25, although the pace remained below the pre-COVID trend.

Sector-wise performance showed mixed signals. The service sector continued to act as the main engine of growth, expanding by 4.59 per cent during the fiscal year, significantly increasing from the last fiscal year's growth of 4.35 per cent.

The agriculture sector also improved, posting 2.78 per cent growth compared with 2.42 per cent in the previous year, supported by stronger fisheries and livestock activities.

However, industrial growth slowed notably to 2.86 per cent from 3.71 per cent a year earlier, mainly due to weaker manufacturing performance and contraction in natural gas and crude petroleum extraction. 

The manufacturing sector is estimated to grow by 3.31 per cent, a significant drop from 5.83 per cent in the last fiscal. The large industry secured only 1.97 per cent of growth provisionally, with a massive fall from 5.94 per cent in the last fiscal.

The natural gas and crude petroleum sector contracted by 10.73 per cent in FY26, extending its negative growth streak for the fourth consecutive year.

Despite the expansion in GDP size, key macroeconomic indicators pointed to underlying pressure in investment and savings.

The overall investment-to-GDP ratio declined to 27.93 per cent in FY26 from 28.54 per cent in the previous fiscal year, indicating slower capital formation in the economy.

Private investment fell to 21.53 per cent of GDP, from 22.03 per cent, while public investment dropped to 6.40 per cent from 6.51 per cent in the last fiscal.

Savings indicators also weakened amid rising consumption pressure. Domestic savings dropped to 21.38 per cent of GDP from 21.98 per cent, while national savings declined to 26.93 per cent from 27.67 per cent in the last fiscal.

Consumption expenditure remained the dominant driver of economic activity, accounting for 78.62 per cent of GDP at current market prices, with private consumption alone representing nearly 73 per cent of the economy.

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