AN ANALYSIS of Bangladesh’s national budget since independence shows that marginalised groups such as family farmers, rural women, indigenous peoples and those targeted for agricultural-land-water-body reforms have consistently remained neglected and deprived. For these groups, no effective ‘line item’-based allocations have ever been established in the national budget. As a result, their real needs and rights have not been reflected in mainstream development planning.
In the jointly published research volume ‘The Political Economy of Unpeopling: Family Farming, Rural Women, Indigenous Peoples and Land Reform in the 50 Years of National Budget of Bangladesh’ by the Association for Land Reform and Development and the Human Development Research Centre, renowned economist Abul Barkat describes these vast deprived populations as ‘unpeople’. According to the 2021 census, of a total population of 165,158,616, nearly 90 per cent belong to these marginalised categories. The study finds that over the past five decades (from 1972-73 to 2021-22 financial years), a total of 106,535 development projects and programmes were implemented under the national budget, with a total allocation of Tk 6,035,913 (in 2021-22 price levels). Yet despite this massive expenditure, people involved in family farming, rural women, indigenous communities and populations targeted for agriculture-land-water body reforms have remained largely excluded from the mainstream of development.
It is estimated that individuals involved in family farming make up approximately 47.63 per cent of the total population. However, there are no reliable official statistics to confirm this. Over the past five decades (from 1972-73 to 2021-22), only 13.34 per cent of development projects and programmes have been directed toward family farming. Furthermore, just 10.47 per cent of total budget allocations have gone to this sector. In addition, rural women represent about 40.77 per cent of the total population, but only 13.35 per cent of projects have targeted them, with a mere 12.28 per cent of total allocations. Indigenous peoples, who constitute approximately 2.94 per cent of the population (around 5 million people, though officially reported as about 1 per cent), have seen only 5.37 per cent of projects aimed at them, receiving just 1.67 per cent of total allocations. Even more alarming is the situation regarding those targeted for agriculture-land-water-body reforms. Although about 82.7 per cent of the population is directly or indirectly linked to these sectors, a mere 0.49 per cent of development projects have been targeted toward them, and only 0.27 per cent of total budget allocations have been directed to this area.
The statistics clearly indicate that budget allocations for marginalised groups are disproportionately low compared to their population sizes, which reflects a form of structural deprivation. Additionally, the annual growth rate of allocations for these groups has been minimal. Over the past five decades, while the average annual growth rate of the national budget was 7.97 per cent, it was only 4.97 per cent for family farming and 6.9 per cent for rural women. Alarmingly, the growth rate for agricultural land and water body reform-related population was negative at –1.74 per cent. These circumstances indicate that although the overall size of the national budget increased, the allocations to marginalised groups did not rise proportionately; in many cases, their share has continued to decline.
Over the last fifty years, it appears that individuals connected to family farming, such as landless and marginal farmers and poor and low-income groups and smallholders, along with rural women, indigenous peoples and populations related to land and water body reform, have received, at most, around 13 per cent of what they should have received in proportion to their population. In other words, approximately 87 per cent of their rightful allocations have effectively been denied.
Furthermore, budget analysis over the past five decades shows that the ‘allocation gaps’ between national per capita development spending and per capita spending for marginalised groups have been steadily increasing. Various research reports produced by the ALRD and HDRC along with a 2026 study titled ‘National Budget Allocation for Family Farming, Rural Women, Indigenous Peoples, Youth, Urban Poor, and Land Reform: A Research Survey’ conducted by ALRD and the Centre for Research and Development, reveal that although national per capita development allocation increased over the last four fiscal years, per capita allocations for most marginalised groups declined relatively.
Assuming a population of 175.7 million and a development budget of 2.3 trillion taka in the fiscal year 2025-2026, the national per capita development allocation amounts to Tk 13,097. In comparison, the per capita allocation for family farming is only Tk 2,092, 84 per cent lower than the national average. For rural women, the allocation is Tk 2,102, approximately 83.95 per cent lower than the national average. Indigenous peoples received Tk 5,367, which represents a reduction of 59.02 per cent. The youth have an average allocation of Tk 3,865, 70.49 per cent lower than the national figure. The urban poor average Tk 9,799, which is 21.69 per cent of the national average. Finally, for the population related to land reform, the allocation is only Tk 603, which is a concerning 95.4 per cent below the national average.
These statistics clearly show that while the national budget has increased overall, the benefits of development have not been distributed equitably to marginalised communities. Instead, an ingrained pattern of inequality and deprivation has gradually intensified within the budgetary framework itself.
In the research volume mentioned, noted economist Abul Barkat proposes two key policy strategies to eliminate budgetary inequality and ensure fair allocation for marginalised groups. First, to address existing disparities in allocations for family farmers, rural women, indigenous peoples and groups targeted for agricultural, land and water body reforms, per capita budget allocations for these communities must be raised to match the national per capita level. In other words, the state must work to close the ‘allocation gap’. Second, to address long-standing and accumulated inequalities, a ‘positive discrimination policy’ should be implemented. This policy would provide additional allocations for historically marginalised communities to help compensate for past injustices.
This year, as in previous years, the rights-based organisation ALRD organised a roundtable discussion titled ‘Fair Allocation, Participation, Implementation, and Monitoring for Marginalised Communities in the National Budget, 2026’. This event focused on the allocation, participation and implementation framework for marginalised groups within the national budget.
The study recommends special allocations in the national budget for the 2026-2027 financial year across six sectors: family farming, rural women, indigenous peoples, youth, the urban poor, and agricultural land-water body reform. Specific recommendations included at least Tk 111,000 crore for 63.8 million family farmers, Tk 105,000 crore for over 60 million rural women, Tk 8,915 crore for more than 5.1 million indigenous peoples, Tk 61,805 crore for youth (one-fifth of the population), Tk 23,177 crore for over 13.3 million urban poor and Tk 216,318 crore for nearly 120 million individuals related to agriculture, land and water body reforms.
In addition, several key policy recommendations emerged from the discussion. These included administrative reforms to ensure the participation of marginalised communities in defining budget line items, allocation decisions, implementation and monitoring; the publication of updated online, sector-wise expenditure data to promote transparency in budget spending; lowering lease costs for water bodies (Jalmahals) for genuine fishermen in haor regions; providing low-interest or interest-free loans under simplified conditions; establishing adequate support funds for disaster-affected communities in haor and coastal areas; allocating a special budget for safe drinking water supply in coastal regions and creating a fund of at least 3,000 crore taka for emergency assistance for farmers, with future increases based on needs.
The current government is taking steps to modernise Bangladesh’s agricultural sector and address challenges such as climate change, population growth and shrinking farmland. However, greater benefits for smallholder farmers, rural women, indigenous peoples, landless communities, etc. will depend on ensuring targeted support and specific budget allocations that address their unique needs.
In conclusion, a state budget is not just about financial allocation; it reflects the state’s sense of justice, priorities and political vision. If a fair and participatory budget for marginalised communities is not ensured, the prevailing development narrative will only further institutionalise inequality. Therefore, establishing an inclusive, accountable, and people-centred budgetary framework is an urgent priority.
Rowshan Jahan Moni is deputy executive director and Mong Sing Neo is programme coordinator of the Association for Land Reform and Development.
