The government’s underutilisation of power plants is likely to worsen this summer due to shortages of gas, coal, and furnace oil caused by US-Israel war on Iran and financial constraints.
Around 40 percent of the overall capacity is expected to remain idle during peak demand between 7:00pm and 9:00pm. Gas‑fired plants are likely to be used the least.
Out of the total 12,204 megawatts (MW) of gas‑fired capacity, the Bangladesh Power Development Board (PDB) will be able to use at best 5,200MW, leaving nearly 7,000MW offline.
This means about 60 percent of gas‑fired capacity may remain unutilised throughout the summer, while capacity charges will continue to be paid, according to the PDB’s summer plan.
Even yesterday, at least 17 gas-fired power plants, out of a total of 57, were either not running or producing less than their capacities due to gas shortages.
To fully utilise the country’s gas‑fired power capacity, the PDB requires around 2,524 million cubic feet of gas per day (MMcf/d).
With the overall gas supply now at 2,650 MMcf/d, Petrobangla, the state‑owned supplier, must ration allocations to power plants, industries, fertiliser factories, and homes.
An internal PDB analysis states that it needs at least 1,200 MMcf/d of gas to run power plants during the summer peak projected demand of 18,500MW, provided coal‑fired and furnace oil plants generate expected electricity.
Currently, gas supply to the power sector stands at 900 MMcf/d, allowing PDB to produce up to 5,200MW. The supply may drop further as the government has decided to restart at least two fertiliser factories.
Gas shortages have already forced five of the country’s six fertiliser factories to remain shut since March. The lone running fertiliser factory -- Ghorashal‑Palash Urea factory -- needs 60 MMcf/d. In May, multinational KAFCO is expected to resume operations, requiring another 60 MMcf/d.
The PDB analysis warned that if gas supply to power plants drops to 800 MMcf/d, electricity generation will drop below 4,500MW.
As per the assessment of other fuel-based power plants, PDB expects 5,700MW from the installed coal capacity of 6,203MW and 3,500MW from the installed furnace oil capacity of 5,634MW.
As a result, officials forecast load shedding of around 2,000MW during peak hours, translating into two to three hours of outages nationwide.
For the first time this year, there was 1,000MW of load shedding yesterday. The demand was 14,800MW.
CAPACITY CHARGE BURDEN
Local power plants operate under contracts with the PDB that guarantee a portion of payments to operators regardless of actual electricity generation, ostensibly against their investments.
Inflated capacity charges in these deals have been costing Bangladesh up to $1.5 billion annually, according to a national committee formed during the interim government to review unsolicited contracts signed under the Awami League regime.
The committee warned that unless agreements with at least 41 plants are renegotiated, the country could face about $7.2 billion in excess payments over the remaining life of the deals.
M Shamsul Alam, professor of electrical and electronic engineering at Daffodil University, said the service for which the plants were rented was never fully provided, with contractors and “dealmakers” benefitting at the people’s expense.
He noted that underutilisation of plants is not solely linked to current geopolitical tensions, as coal supply is not dependent on the Strait of Hormuz.
“Coal plants were utilised at only 45 percent capacity last year, though they were designed to run at 90 percent as baseload plants are designed to run continuously. If those plants operated properly, we could save Tk 25,000 to 30,000 crore annually by not having to buy liquid fuel,” he said.
GAS SHORTAGE
The country requires around 3,825 MMcf/d of gas to meet the demand for power, industries, fertiliser, domestic consumers and non-grid power.
However, as of yesterday, Petrobangla is supplying 2,650 MMcf/d, with 1,698 MMcf/d from local gas sources and 952 MMcf/d from imported liquified natural gas (LNG).
Domestic gas production has been in decline since 2018, when the local production was around 2,500 MMcf/d. Over the last couple of years, the country’s largest producing gas field, Bibiyana, has been producing less and less due to dwindling reserves.
COAL SCENARIO
The PDB expects around 5,700MW of power from coal‑fired plants. The country has installed 6,203MW capacity across seven plants, alongside an agreement with Adani Power (Jharkhand, India) Ltd to import 1,496MW.
As of yesterday, official data shows local plants were producing up to 4,100MW, while Adani Power supplied around 750MW.
One of Adani’s two units was shut for maintenance, while the 1,200MW Matarbari plant was generating only 320MW due to coal shortages.
In addition, all three units of the Barapukuria power plant, with a combined capacity of 524MW, were producing just 50MW because of technical issues, the records show.
FURNACE OIL
The country has furnace oil‑based power plants with a capacity of 5,634MW, from which the PDB expects to generate up to 3,500MW this summer.
At the evening peak (9:00pm) yesterday, furnace oil plants produced 2,800MW. These plants are typically operated only during peak hours, as furnace oil is the costliest source of fuel.
The situation is further complicated by mounting dues to furnace oil-based plants, now amounting to around Tk 14,000 crore. Operators have warned they may not sustain production unless payments are cleared, raising the risk of deeper supply cuts.
RENEWABLES
The country has installed 1,059MW of renewable capacity -- just 3.7 percent of the total -- with solar at 757MW, hydro 230MW and wind 62MW.
The 11 solar plants across the country support only daytime peak hours, providing up to 500MW and easing pressure on furnace oil plants.
The lone hydro facility at Kaptai operates at full capacity only during the monsoon, when water levels are high. During evening peak hours, 80MW is currently available from the hydro plant, with output fluctuating in line with water pressure, data shows.
The country’s sole wind mill in Cox’s Bazar has an installed capacity of 60MW. Since output depends on wind speed, generation under current weather conditions is around 20MW, data also shows.
