With the 12 lakh-strong Rohingya refugee population growing and international funding shrinking, Bangladesh faces a mounting burden of hosting the persecuted minority from Myanmar.
Officials say the situation is unsustainable and could deepen the nine-year-old crisis.
Bangladesh will have to shoulder an increasingly heavy financial, diplomatic and security burden as conditions in the camps in Cox’s Bazar are deteriorating and the prospect of quick repatriation is fading.
According to UNHCR data, the Rohingya population in Bangladesh stood at 12.02 lakh as of July 31 this year. Of them, 39,856 were from the 1990 influx, while more than 10 lakh arrived following the massive 2017 influx.
The 2017 brutal military crackdown in Rakhine State began on August 25, forcing around 750,000 Rohingya to cross the border and take shelter in Cox’s Bazar.
Since then, an estimated 2.6 lakh Rohingya children have been born. Another 154,690 Rohingyas have arrived since 2023, when renewed fighting between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army intensified in Rakhine.
And the influx continues.
“Every week, 50 to 60 Rohingya are entering Bangladesh,” said Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner (RRRC) Mizanur Rahman.
In stark contrast, funding for the humanitarian response has declined sharply.
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Star file photo: Anisur Rahman
According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the 2017 Humanitarian Response Plan received $314.6 million for Rohingyas, while funding for the 2018 and 2019 plans stood at $688.1 million and $692 million respectively.
Funding fell to $630 million in 2020 before rising to $689.6 million in 2021. It then declined to $619.7 million in 2022, $619.9 million in 2023 and $581.3 million in 2024.
The situation worsened sharply in 2025. Against an appeal of $934.5 million, only $434.5 million was received -- just 46 percent of the requirement.
For 2026, the UN and its partners are seeking $710.5 million, significantly less than last year’s appeal despite a growing refugee population.
“This is primarily due to a global shortage of humanitarian financing. Donors requested a scaled-down, hyper-prioritised plan,” said Ivo Freijsen, UNHCR Representative in Bangladesh, in an interview with The Daily Star.
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File photo of Kutupalong Rohingya camp: Rajib Raihan/Star
SERVICES UNDER PRESSURE
The funding shortfall is already affecting food security and essential services.
In 2023, the World Food Programme (WFP) cut monthly food rations from $12 to $8. By November that year, WFP said 90 percent of camp residents could not afford an adequate diet, and 15 percent of children were suffering from acute malnutrition.
Rations were restored to $12 in 2024. However, since April this year, food assistance has again been restructured based on vulnerability, with monthly allocations of $12 for the highly vulnerable, $10 for the moderately vulnerable and $7 for the vulnerable.
RRRC Mizanur said declining assistance was contributing to severe malnutrition among refugees.
Other essential services, including health, education, water and sanitation, have also been cut, while thousands of aid workers and Rohingya volunteers have lost their jobs.
The number of Rohingya learning centres has fallen to fewer than 6,000 from around 8,000, Mizanur said.
Star file photo: Anisur Rahman
Ehsan Ullah, 22, a Rohingya teacher at Camp 6 in Ukhiya, said students had not received new books, notebooks, pencils or school bags for four years.
A UN official said many makeshift shelters had weakened and needed repairs, but funding was unavailable. New arrivals were also living in tents along hill slopes because authorities had yet to approve new shelters, creating additional risks during the monsoon.
“With the monsoon season at its peak, roads have become so dilapidated that people cannot go to the toilets,” Ehsan said.
The loss of livelihood opportunities is also increasing desperation among young Rohingyas.
“Most youths have no work. They are going outside the camps and even taking sea journeys to reach Malaysia. Many are involved in online gambling,” Ehsan said.
A generation is growing up without adequate education, jobs or hope, increasing the risks of early marriage and unsafe migration, he said.
“Education is an investment in hope and in the future return of the Rohingya people. Eroding these services creates more urgent needs later,” Freijsen said.
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Star file photo: Anisur Rahman
THE HIDDEN BILL
While international agencies largely finance food, shelter, healthcare, education and other humanitarian services, Bangladesh bears substantial costs that are not fully reflected in international appeals.
A 2025 World Bank study estimated that the government spent $656 million between July 2017 and June 2023 on expenditures related to the displaced Rohingya population. The estimate did not include security costs, employee costs or capital expenditure for Bhasan Char.
Security remains one of the government’s biggest responsibilities. Mizanur said additional forces, including the Army, Border Guard Bangladesh, Armed Police Battalion, RAB and police, are deployed in the camps. Several government agencies, including the ministries responsible for disaster management, social services, health and local government, are also involved in managing the crisis.
An informal estimate shared by the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief with the World Bank put government spending on the Rohingya response at around $1.5 billion over six years through 2023, with more than 60 percent related to security and another 15 percent associated with forest and biodiversity losses.
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Star file photo: Anisur Rahman
Bangladesh initially allocated around 3,000 acres in 2017 for the Rohingya settlement in Cox’s Bazar. The 33 camps now occupy about 23.6 square kilometres.
The government has also developed Bhasan Char as an alternative settlement to ease pressure on Cox’s Bazar, at a cost of more than Tk 2,300 crore.
Freijsen said the Rohingya remain among the world’s most persecuted populations and continue to flee because of the conditions in Myanmar.
Bangladesh, he said, is shouldering the major burden by hosting them and needs greater international burden-sharing, alongside renewed political engagement on Myanmar to create conditions for their safe, voluntary and sustainable return.
“It is a humanitarian imperative. There will be immediate consequences if ignored.”
