The two-week ceasefire in the US-Israel war on Iran may not have an immediate impact on Bangladesh’s fuel supply situation.
Any noticeable improvement in supply could take several weeks, according to officials of the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation and the energy ministry.
Although the ceasefire may improve supply conditions slightly, the market will not return to normal in the short term, said M Shamsul Alam, energy adviser at the Consumers Association of Bangladesh.
Bangladesh is exposed to several risks, including the likelihood of having to purchase fuel at higher prices, he said.
Contracts were in place in March to import a total of 440,000 tonnes of diesel, 200,000 tonnes of crude oil, 47,000 tonnes of jet fuel and 25,000 tonnes of furnace oil across 17 parcels, shows BPC data.
Of these, 10 parcels were delivered, bringing in 253,000 tonnes of diesel, 22,000 tonnes of jet fuel and 25,000 tonnes of furnace oil.
The remaining shipments -- comprising 118,400 tonnes of diesel, 200,000 tonnes of crude oil and 25,000 tonnes of jet fuel -- failed to arrive due to the conflict.
While two of these parcels, carrying 25,000 tonnes of diesel and 25,000 tonnes of furnace oil, are expected to arrive this week, there is still no assurance regarding the delivery of the remaining five parcels, according to BPC officials.
The ceasefire has created the possibility for the delayed shipments to resume, said Monir Hossain Chowdhury, spokesperson and joint secretary at the power, energy and mineral resources ministry.
Vessel movement through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to restart, and discussions are underway to ensure the delivery of previously stalled parcels.
A shipment of 100,000 tonnes of Arabian Light crude oil from Saudi Arabia is likely to cross the Strait within a day or two.
The vessel was originally scheduled to arrive in Bangladesh in mid-March, but failed to do so due to the conflict.
“Similarly, there are now positive indications that other shipments delayed by the war may also begin to arrive” he added.
This means Eastern Refinery, the country’s lone refinery, can crank up its production back to full capacity as low crude stock prompted the authorities to slow down daily processing to less than half its normal capacity.
A report sent by BPC to the ministry on April 1 shows that ERL’s crude stock has fallen to its lowest level in two decades: usable reserves stood at just 19,000 tonnes, enough to run the refinery for only four to five days.
Under BPC’s quarterly procurement plan, contracts have been signed to import around 476,000 tonnes of refined fuel in April, to be delivered through 15 seaborne cargoes and five pipeline shipments.
The planned imports include 311,000 tonnes of diesel, 65,000 tonnes of jet fuel, 50,000 tonnes of furnace oil and 50,000 tonnes of octane.
In addition, there is a plan to import 100,000 tonnes of crude oil from Saudi Arabia this month.
Contracts are in place to import around 490,000 tonnes of refined fuel in May and 410,000 tonnes in June, although confirmation of the shipments is still pending.
The overall import volume could increase further if the suppliers awarded contracts under direct procurement processes are able to deliver on schedule, BPC officials said.
