Bangladesh risks becoming increasingly dependent on India for international internet bandwidth unless proposed private submarine cable projects begin operations soon, industry stakeholders warned on Monday.
According to them, the country's rapidly rising bandwidth demand, combined with its heavy reliance on a limited number of submarine cables and terrestrial routes through India, could create a major infrastructure bottleneck and weaken Bangladesh's digital sovereignty.
They also stressed that submarine cable projects require several years for planning, financing, construction and commissioning.
Therefore, waiting until a bandwidth shortage becomes acute could leave Bangladesh with little time to respond, they observed.
They also warned that continued indecision over private submarine cable projects could repeat the strategic mistake of missing the opportunity to secure SEA-ME-WE-3, ultimately forcing Bangladesh to rely even more heavily on India for its international internet connectivity.
The warning and observations came at a workshop titled 'The Need for New Submarine Cables to Protect Digital Sovereignty and Meet Future Bandwidth Demand', organised by the Telecom and Technology Reporters Association of Bangladesh (TRNB) at a resort near Dhaka.
Mohammad Aminul Hakim, Chief Executive Officer of Metacore Subcom Ltd, said Bangladesh's main competitor in the international bandwidth market was not another submarine cable operator but International Terrestrial Cable (ITC) operators.
If private submarine cables are connected to Bangladesh, internet prices could fall by up to 50 per cent, while quality of service could improve by 25-30 per cent and latency could decline, he said.
He also projected that the use of internet services could increase by 20-30 per cent following the arrival of new submarine cables.
The concern is particularly significant as Bangladesh's international bandwidth consumption has increased sharply.
According to presentations at the workshop, bandwidth usage rose from only 50 Gbps in 2013 to around 13.5 Tbps in 2026--an increase of about 260 times in 13 years.
The demand is projected to reach 19.1 Tbps in 2027, around 27 Tbps in 2028, 54 Tbps in 2030, 305 Tbps in 2035 and 432 Tbps in 2036.
At present, Bangladesh's international connectivity relies mainly on two government-owned submarine cables, SEA-ME-WE-4 and SEA-ME-WE-5, with capacities of 4.6 Tbps and 2.5 Tbps respectively, the workshop was told.
The remainder is supplied through ITC routes, predominantly via India.
This dependence could become more pronounced if private submarine cable projects are delayed, industry representatives said.
They argued that new private submarine cables would provide an alternative international gateway, reducing Bangladesh's reliance on bandwidth imported through India.
Without such additional capacity, a growing share of Bangladesh's future bandwidth requirement may have to be met through terrestrial connectivity, leaving the country more exposed to capacity constraints, pricing and route-related risks.
The disparity with regional countries is also significant. India is connected to 19 international submarine cables, while Malaysia has 23, Thailand 12 and the Philippines 19.
Bangladesh currently has only two operational submarine cable connections, according to the workshop presentations.
The country's third government submarine cable, SEA-ME-WE-6, is expected to provide additional capacity, but industry stakeholders said it would not be sufficient to meet long-term demand. Moreover, the operational life of SEA-ME-WE-4 is expected to end in 2030.
They estimated that Bangladesh could face a bandwidth shortfall of around 27 Tbps by 2028 if new capacity is not added.
Several private-sector submarine cable proposals could together add around 51 Tbps of capacity, potentially taking Bangladesh's total capacity to about 67 Tbps. This could increase competition, reduce dependence on Indian bandwidth and create scope for lower wholesale internet prices.
Mashiur Rahman, Chief Executive Officer of Cidnet Communications Ltd, and Mahmud Shahed, project lead at Metacore Subcom Ltd, made presentations at the workshop on the history of submarine cables, investment requirements, Bangladesh's need for additional cables and digital sovereignty.
TRNB president Masuduzzaman Robin chaired the event, while its general secretary Faruk Hossain also spoke.
