July 2024 is one of the pivotal moments in Bangladesh’s history. What started as a student-led protest demanding reform in the quota system for government jobs rapidly grew into a nationwide uprising, culminating in a change of government. Therefore, from a historical perspective, the defining question is why a movement over public sector recruitment transformed into a demand for systemic political change.
The root cause lies in years of accumulated political, economic and institutional grievances. While the quota system provided the initial spark, the underlying factors were far more profound. As with many historic social movements, a particular grievance became a symbol of wider public discontent. The Arab Spring, for instance, began with a Tunisian street vendor’s self-immolation but quickly grew into a regional protest against authoritarian rule, unemployment, and inequality. In Bangladesh, the July uprising followed this pattern.
By mid-2024, the country was under increasing economic and political strain. Inflation had risen above 11 percent, and problems such as low investment, sluggish job growth, dwindling reserves, banking sector weaknesses, and underperforming public services heightened economic concerns. Many young people felt increasingly marginalised from employment opportunities and national decision-making. Consequently, the quota issue expanded into a wider discussion about the fairness and legitimacy of state governance.
The July uprising, therefore, symbolised more than just opposition to a specific system. It challenged the country’s development approach, which excluded the majority of people from the benefits and had little institutional accountability. Through the movement, the youth expected to create a new social contract that would redefine the relationship between the state and the citizens.
Two years on, the obvious question is whether those expectations have been met. If not, will they be fulfilled in the coming days? The answer hinges on how success is defined. If it is measured only by the transfer of political power, then July signifies a historic milestone. But if success is assessed through institutional reforms, the goal remains unachieved. Judged by progress in employment generation, inflation control, investment growth, steady electricity supply, and improved public services, July’s objectives still remain unfulfilled.
July’s true legacy will not be measured by the number of reform commissions formed or policies announced. Instead, it will be judged by the nation’s ability to build a state in which political rivalry remains peaceful, the economy thrives, institutions are accountable, and citizens’ rights are safeguarded. Achieving these goals requires more than immediate stabilisation. It demands sustained institutional and economic reforms.
Restoring confidence in democratic competition is the top priority. The key lesson of July is that when legitimate political contests are limited, public frustration can escalate into protests. Free, credible and well-organised elections are crucial not just for democracy but also for economic stability. Investors need long-term commitments and predictable power transitions through constitutional and peaceful means. To achieve this, strengthening the Election Commission, building trust among political parties, and creating reliable mechanisms for dispute resolution should be national goals.
At the same time, Bangladesh needs to shift from a system in which decisions depend largely on individuals to one in which institutions guide governance. A mature state is characterised by institutions that continue to function professionally and impartially regardless of changes in political leadership. Strengthening the independence, professionalism and accountability of the civil service, judiciary, Bangladesh Bank, Election Commission, Anti-Corruption Commission and other regulatory bodies is therefore essential. Without stronger institutions, sustainable development will remain difficult to achieve.
Economic policy should prioritise employment as a key goal. The country’s growth in recent years has relied heavily on RMG exports, remittance inflows, and increased female workforce participation. Moving forward, development must aim to provide meaningful employment for a growing, better-educated youth population. Boosting economic growth alone is not enough. Fostering new industries, promoting technological advancements, diversifying exports, supporting SMEs, and generating skilled jobs must also be policy goals, aligning with young people’s ambitions.
A robust financial system is crucial to this end. The banking sector has reached the point where small-scale corrections are no longer sufficient. Addressing challenges such as high non-performing loans, poor governance, insufficient capital, and slow judicial processes demands a wide-ranging reform plan. Improved loan recovery, streamlined financial litigation, proper provisioning, enhanced corporate governance, and greater independence for the central bank are vital for the country’s financial system to effectively underpin investment and sustainable economic development.
A comprehensive revenue reform is equally crucial in this journey. Bangladesh’s tax-GDP ratio is far below international standards, which constrains the government’s ability to invest sufficiently in infrastructure, education, healthcare, and social safety nets. However, increasing revenue means not simply raising taxes but also modernising tax administration, tackling tax evasion, expanding digital tax systems, and establishing a simpler, more equitable tax system. Citizens’ willingness to pay taxes will grow only if they trust that public funds are being managed transparently and efficiently.
Energy security must be central to the country’s long-term economic strategy. Recent power and gas shortages have constrained industrial growth and reduced investment. Energy policy should be regarded as a key factor influencing industrial competitiveness, exports, jobs, and foreign investment, not just power generation. In the short term, Bangladesh should focus on supplying gas and electricity to productive sectors, diversifying energy import sources, and settling outstanding supplier payments on time. For the medium and long terms, initiatives like boosting domestic gas exploration, expanding renewable energy sources, enhancing regional power trade, and developing an integrated energy security plan are vital for sustainable development.
Decentralisation must be another important reform goal. The highly centralised system in Bangladesh often hampers timely responses to local issues and restricts citizen involvement. Empowering local authorities would strengthen democracy and improve service delivery in several public sectors. Decentralising decision-making would foster greater accountability and improve development results as well.
Tackling inequality must also be a key focus of development policy. A major message from July was that economic growth by itself isn’t sufficient; equitable distribution of its advantages is equally crucial. Addressing regional disparities, unequal access to quality education, gender gaps in employment, digital divides, and limited opportunities for young people are essential for ensuring that economic progress remains socially sustainable.
These reforms must be based on strong evidence. Successful policymaking relies on accurate data, thorough research, and systematic evaluation, not just political judgment. Increased collaboration among government bodies, universities, research organisations, and the private sector would enhance both the quality of public policy and public trust in government decisions.
What the July uprising truly symbolised was a deeper desire to see the state go beyond regulation to serve as the protector of citizens’ rights, security and opportunities. A modern social contract should be based on three core principles: accountability, equal opportunity, and trust. When citizens feel that the state treats them fairly, upholds their rights equally under the law, and manages public resources wisely, both democratic stability and economic growth become much more sustainable.
Dr Fahmida Khatun is an economist and executive director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
Views expressed in this article are the author’s own.
Views expressed in this article are the author's own.
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