Bangladesh appears to have adequate fertiliser stocks at the national level, but shortages in some areas, overpricing and irregularities in distribution continue to disrupt farmers during the Aman season, raising questions about the effectiveness of the supply chain.
The Ministry of Agriculture says there is no overall fertiliser shortage and that current stocks are sufficient to meet demand through December. Fertiliser imports under government-to-government arrangements are also continuing.
However, farmers in several districts have reported difficulty obtaining fertiliser from authorised dealers at government-fixed prices, while mobile courts have detected overpricing, unauthorised sales and illegal stockpiling.
The authorities have responded with repeated raids, fines, seizure of fertiliser and the sealing of warehouses.
Agriculture Secretary Md Selim Khan told the FE on Tuesday that there is no nationwide fertiliser crisis.
"We have formed monitoring committees led by two secretaries and appointed tag officers in every district. Action is being taken against officials and employees where irregularities are found. Already, four to five officials have been removed," he said.
He attributed part of the current disruption to uncertainty surrounding the government's new fertiliser dealer policy.
"Some people are trying to create a crisis to hamper the implementation of the new dealer policy," he said, adding that the government expects to appoint new dealers within this month.
Under the new policy, the government plans to appoint an additional fertiliser dealer in every union while retaining the existing two dealers. The move is intended to improve farmers' access to fertiliser and reduce dependence on a limited number of dealers.
The secretary said adequate stocks at government warehouses would have little meaning unless farmers could obtain fertiliser at the right time and at the fixed price.
According to the ministry's assessment, based on reports from Gaibandha, Bogura, Rajshahi and Joypurhat, there is no artificial fertiliser shortage in the country and most areas are selling fertiliser at government-fixed prices.
The assessment also states that fertiliser stocks are sufficient to meet requirements through December, with additional supplies arriving through imports.
Yet the same assessment records enforcement action against irregularities in fertiliser sales and distribution. In Bogura, authorities seized 1,675 sacks of fertiliser (each sack containing 50 kilograms) and sealed a warehouse.
Mobile courts in other districts have also taken action over allegations of charging prices above the government-fixed rates, failing to display price lists, and selling fertiliser without proper registration.
Such incidents suggest that the immediate problem may not necessarily be a shortage at the national level, but rather the availability of fertiliser at particular locations and at the prices fixed by the government.
Recent reports from different parts of the country have also shown farmers paying significantly higher prices for fertiliser. In some markets, farmers have reportedly been forced to buy from retailers after failing to obtain supplies from authorised dealers.
The distinction matters for policymakers: fertiliser sitting in a government warehouse cannot immediately meet the needs of a farmer whose crop requires fertiliser at a particular stage of cultivation.
DAE Director General Md Abdur Rahim acknowledged that fertiliser-related problems had emerged in some areas, particularly in Rajshahi, Chapainawabganj and other northern districts.
"In my 31 years of service, I have not seen fertiliser shortages or a fertiliser crisis at this time of the Bhadra month," he said.
He said the present requirement for non-urea fertilisers such as DAP and MOP should be relatively limited, as much of the current cultivation has already been completed.
"Currently, farmers mainly need urea," he said, while noting that uneven rainfall and distribution problems could have contributed to local shortages.
He also expressed concern that some farmers might be purchasing DAP and TSP ahead of the Rabi season for fear that supplies could become scarce later. The Rabi season begins in mid-October, with farmers preparing to cultivate potatoes, vegetables, mustard, maize and wheat.
"If farmers are buying non-urea fertilisers now, they may simply be storing them for the Rabi crops," Rahim said, adding that allocations for the Rabi season would be higher, suggesting the current pressure should not necessarily be read as a sign of a nationwide shortage.
Bangladesh Fertilizer Association Chairman Mosharaf Hossain also rejected the possibility of a nationwide shortage.
"There is actually no fertiliser crisis," he said, adding that government stocks are available, supplies are in the pipeline, and private-sector importers have also been authorised to bring in fertiliser.
He said the current market pressure was being driven partly by increased demand and panic buying.
"When some farmers start buying additional quantities because they fear a shortage, demand naturally increases. Even a two to five per cent increase in demand can create pressure in a particular area," he said, adding that misinformation had also amplified concerns among farmers.
However, Hossain said local demand should have been reassessed once the additional requirement became apparent. The ministry's allocations, he said, were largely based on previous years' demand patterns.
"If district administrations and DAE officials had identified areas requiring additional quantities and communicated those requirements to the ministry, additional allocations could have been made," he said.
"This problem first emerged in one or two areas of northern Bangladesh and then started spreading as farmers became concerned."
He also alleged that some unlicensed traders were buying and storing fertiliser in anticipation of higher prices.
The combination of panic buying, localised supply gaps and unauthorised stockpiling could therefore be creating shortages in some markets even as aggregate national stocks remain adequate.
