The changes in Rakhine are also significant for Bangladesh’s diplomacy. Until now, Dhaka has primarily discussed repatriation with the Myanmar government. But as the power structure in Rakhine has changed, questions have arisen over how much this policy reflects the reality on the ground. In June, Foreign Affairs Adviser Khalilur Rahman told Parliament that Bangladesh was working to establish effective dialogue between the Myanmar authorities and the Arakan Army to create a stable environment in Rakhine.

This signals a significant shift. It does not mean recognising the Arakan Army. Rather, the reality is that it is difficult to completely ignore the side that exercises effective control over large parts of Rakhine when trying to create conditions for repatriation. This reality has already become apparent in some incidents along the border. Bangladesh has communicated with the Arakan Army to secure the release of Bangladeshi fishermen it had detained. In other words, the realities on the ground have already created a degree of contact.

The question is how strategically Bangladesh can make use of this reality. On the one hand, it will have to continue repatriation talks with Naypyidaw. On the other, it will also need to maintain necessary communication with the forces exercising effective control in Rakhine. At the same time, international pressure must be sustained so that the questions of Rohingya citizenship and rights do not fall outside the scope of repatriation discussions. Finding a path toward a solution through dialogue at multiple levels, while safeguarding the country’s interests, will be a major challenge for Bangladesh.