The February 12 election marked a turning point in Bangladesh’s politics: for the first time in its history, Jamaat-e-Islami achieved its strongest electoral performance, even winning constituencies that had long been dominated by the BNP and the Awami League.

Historically, Jamaat’s parliamentary presence was modest. Across four widely regarded free and fair elections -- 1991, June 1996, 2001, and 2008 -- the party secured victory in only 40 seats.

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This year, Jamaat bagged 68 seats, surpassing the combined tally of those four polls.

An analysis of The Daily Star shows that nearly 39 percent of Jamaat’s victories, or 26 seats in total, came from the BNP and AL strongholds. Of the seats, 14 were in BNP bastions and 12 in AL bastions.

Jamaat also triumphed in nine constituencies where the party failed to cross 9 percent of the votes in any of the four widely accepted elections. Of the 68 seats won this year, 55 were in constituencies the party had never won in the previous polls.

Jamaat, which had been a minor player in parliament, this time rose to the role of main opposition, an outcome shaped not only by the AL’s disqualification from the polls, but also by voter sympathy for the party’s years of repression under the AL rule and its calculated political tactics, analysts noted.

Dhaka University Political Science Prof Sabbir Ahmed said the role of Jamaat in the July mass uprising as well as its planned organisational activities also played a role in the party getting support from urban areas.

According to Sabbir, Jamaat’s rise was the result of long-term preparation and a shift in its ideological positioning. “Jamaat moved away from rigid conservatism towards a more moderate stance, which increased their acceptability. Their nomination strategy was calculated, even including minority candidates, though they failed to nominate women. Jamaat’s urban influence has grown, and in some constituencies, they benefited from the BNP’s rebel candidates.”

TURNAROUNDS

The nine seats -- where Jamaat emerged victorious in this year’s election even after getting less than 9 percent of the votes in the previous polls -- are Patuakhali‑2, Dhaka-5, Kurigram‑3, Dhaka‑12, Gazipur‑4, Dhaka-4, Rangpur‑3, Bagerhat‑1, and Pabna‑3.

For instance, in Rangpur-3, Jamaat candidate Mahbubur Rahman Belal got 54.78 percent of the votes cast in the latest polls. In the constituency, the party got only 4.62 and 5.21 percent votes in 1991 and 1996, respectively. They did not field candidates in the next two elections.

Again, in Patuakhali-2, Jamaat polled a mere 2.03 percent in 1991 and 1.70 percent in 1996. In this constituency, the party did not nominate candidates in the next two polls. However, in the 2026 general election, its nominee Shafiqul Islam secured this seat with a vote share of 52.23 percent.

A similar turnaround occurred in Dhaka-12. Jamaat secured only negligible shares of the vote there in 1991 and 1996 (3.62 percent and 2.80 percent, respectively). Yet, the constituency was won by Jamaat candidate Md Saiful Islam with a vote share of 42.74 percent.

The average winning margin for Jamaat candidates in the nine seats was approximately 22,439 votes. The highest margin was 92,566 in Rangpur-3, and the lowest was 2,920 in Dhaka-4.

BREAKTHROUGH

A Daily Star analysis shows that Jamaat captured 14 seats in BNP bastions and 12 in AL bastions in this year’s polls.

Strongholds are defined as constituencies where either party won at least three seats in the four elections held between 1991 and 2008. By this measure, the AL had 78 strongholds and the BNP 85.

In the February 12 polls, Jamaat won Joypurhat-1 and Khulna-2, both of which the BNP had secured in all four previous elections.

Jamaat also claimed 12 constituencies where the BNP had won three of the four elections. These include Chapainawabganj-1 and 2, Dhaka-12, Jhenaidah- 2, 3, and 4, Kushtia-2 and 3, Chattogram-15, Meherpur-2, Rajshahi-1, and Chuadanga-1.

In these BNP strongholds, Jamaat’s average victory margin was about 28,375 votes. The largest winning margin came in Chuadanga-1 with 57,848 votes, while the smallest was in Rajshahi-1 with just 1,884 votes.

Some of these wins were aided by divisions within the BNP. In Dhaka-12, for instance, BNP’s alliance partner, the Biplobi Workers’ Party, fielded a candidate, while a BNP rebel also contested. Combined, the BNP-backed and rebel votes would have surpassed Jamaat’s winning tally. Similar situations unfolded in Jhenaidah-4 and Dhaka-12, where rebel candidates from BNP benefited Jamaat.

Jamaat also made notable gains in the AL strongholds, winning 12 such seats. In these constituencies, Jamaat’s average victory margin was approximately 27,311 votes. The largest margin came in Jashore-5 with 47,831 votes, while the smallest was in Bagerhat-1 with 3,204 votes.

Three of the seats -- Bagerhat-1, Narail-2, and Faridpur-1 -- had been won by the AL in all four elections between 1991 and 2008.

The remaining nine had been secured by the AL in three of those four contests. These include Gazipur-4, Jashore-1, 2, 4, 5, and 6, Pabna-4, Patuakhali-2, and Sherpur-1.

DEBUT IN 55 SEATS

Among the 68 seats won by Jamaat in the 2026 general election, nearly 81 percent (55 constituencies) were ones the party had not won in any of the four elections held between 1991 and 2008.

Jamaat secured victory in the remaining 13 seats at least once during the same period. In the seats, which had a history of Jamaat’s success, the average winning margin was 47,988 votes, almost 80 percent higher than that of the newly secured seats. The average margin was boosted by landslide victories in seats such as Satkhira-2 (150,666 votes margin), Gaibandha-1 (102,729 votes margin), Satkhira-3 (78,854 votes margin).

By contrast, in the 55 constituencies that Jamaat won for the first time this year, the average winning margin was 26,952 votes.

Dhaka University Development Studies Prof Asif Shahan, also a political analyst, said, “One possible explanation behind Jamaat’s improved electoral performance is the return of ‘shy voters’ to their original party preference. In previous elections, a segment of voters who ideologically preferred Jamaat may have voted strategically for the BNP to defeat the AL.

“As the political context changed, such strategic voters may have reverted to supporting Jamaat directly.”

He said that another factor may relate to perceptions of BNP’s involvement in criminal activities or extortion, which could have also influenced some voters to vote for Jamaat as an alternative.

Prof Asif added that candidate-level dynamics may also have mattered. “In several constituencies, rebel candidates associated with the BNP appear to have split the vote.”

JAMAAT STAYS STEADY

Jamaat also won 21 constituencies in which the party finished second in 2008. Of these, striking reversals occurred in Rangpur-1 and 2, where the party overturned its 2008 defeat margins of 140,719 and 129,685 votes, respectively, to secure its first victories in the seats.

The party had been historically most successful in Satkhira-2, where it won in 1991, 1996, and 2001. The party’s largest victory by number of votes this year came in this seat (150,066 votes).

Six other seats won this year had also been secured by Jamaat twice in the four elections held between 1991 and 2008: Satkhira-3, Bagerhat-4, Pabna-1, and Khulna-6 (1991 and 2001), and Nilphamari-3 and Pirojpur-1 (1996 and 2001).

Jamaat also reclaimed constituencies such as Satkhira-1, Jashore-6, Chuadanga-2, and Chapainawabganj-3, which it had not won since the 1991 election.

Contacted, Maulana Abdul Halim, Jamaat assistant secretary general, said, “Despite severe oppression faced by the party since 2009, the organisation’s leaders and activists remained steadfast in their ideological stance, which has had an impact on voters. Even in highly adverse circumstances, we tried to stand by the people.”