The world is closely watching as Bangladesh heads towards a defining election on February 12 amid global geopolitical shift. How are global and regional actors such as the US, China, India and Pakistan looking at it? What is going to change for Bangladesh? Michael Kugelman, senior fellow for South Asia at the Washington-based think tank Atlantic Council, shares his views in an email interview with Porimol Palma, diplomatic correspondent at The Daily Star.
How is the Trump administration looking at the upcoming election in Bangladesh?
The Trump administration, unlike the Biden administration, does not view foreign policy through a values-based lens. This means issues such as democracy and human rights are not likely to drive this administration’s foreign policy thinking. As a result, when it comes to an election in Bangladesh, the administration is unlikely to take a strong stand on the need for a free, fair and credible election, even though it may state this publicly since such a position is not controversial and generally aligns with what much of the Bangladeshi population would want to see. The Trump administration will be keen to work with whatever government emerges victorious from the election.
For the Trump administration, the primary concern is overall stability. It hopes that the election will be peaceful, or at least relatively peaceful, and that any election-related violence—whether before the election, on election day, or afterwards—will be minimised. In particular, it seeks to ensure that such violence does not imperil US interests or assets in Bangladesh.
What are the US’s key priorities then?
Ultimately, the US wants to work with Bangladesh on a number of issues, many of them trade-related. The bottom line is that the Trump administration will be perfectly comfortable with whoever leads the next government, so long as that government is willing to engage with Washington, do business with Washington, and—most importantly from Washington’s perspective—discuss lowering tariffs and purchasing more American goods. This reflects the administration’s highly commercial and transactional approach to foreign policy.
There are perceptions that the US favours Jamaat-e-Islami. Is it true?
It is true that there have been perceptions that the US is, for some reason, favouring Jamaat, perhaps due to reports such as one Washington Post story. However, the bottom line is that the US government does not favour any particular political party. It will work with whichever party emerges victorious from the election.
A core part of US diplomacy is engagement with all key actors and stakeholders. This is why senior US diplomats meet with leaders from different political parties. It should not be surprising that US diplomatic officials have engaged with Jamaat leaders, as Washington recognises—correctly—that Jamaat has political clout and electoral potential. It is a party capable of securing a significant number of votes, and US diplomats acknowledge this reality.
Accordingly, Washington seeks to keep channels of engagement open with Jamaat so that, if Jamaat were to emerge victorious or even assume a key role in the opposition, the US would be able to engage effectively. However, engagement with a particular political party should not be mistaken for endorsement. This is simply how US diplomacy operates: it engages with all key stakeholders.
The Bangladesh-India relations have been strained since the July uprising. What should it look like in the future?
India suffered a significant strategic loss when Sheikh Hasina was ousted. It has been very uncomfortable with the interim government. India felt Bangladesh was heavily influenced by Jamaat and other religious actors that, in India’s view, threaten its interests. Now, it hopes the election will produce a government that is willing to engage with India and will not be influenced by the types of actors that India feels could threaten its interests.
Does India favour any political party?
India is likely to be concerned from political and security standpoints if Jamaat-e-Islami wins the election, but would be comfortable with a BNP-led government. The BNP no longer has an alliance with Jamaat, and the party has expressed its interests about wanting to engage with India.
How would the India-Bangladesh relations be in the coming days?
I think India will be ready to pick up the pieces of what has been a shattered relationship with Bangladesh. New Delhi obviously would have preferred the Awami League to be leading the next government. However, it also recognises that the Awami League is not going to be in the political scene in Bangladesh for quite some time. Thus, it is not going to try to push for ways to bring the party back. It would accept a government led by the BNP and would be willing to work with it.
What about Pakistan?
Pakistan will be happy with either of the two main parties coming to power, but a Jamaat victory would be ideal for it. Pakistan would clearly be the only regional player that would most prefer a Jamaat government. However, it would be okay for Pakistan if there is a BNP-led government, but it would be eager to ensure that BNP does not try to patch Bangladesh’s ties with India because it may diminish Islamabad’s recent efforts to work towards a better relationship with Dhaka.
What about China? How is it looking at the election?
China will watch the election closely as it views Bangladesh as a key trade and investment partner. For Beijing, political stability in Dhaka is key due to its investments in the region. Beijing wants to ensure that the law and order challenges and other security concerns in Bangladesh would not impact Chinese interests on the ground.
The newly-appointed US ambassador to Bangladesh, Brent Christensen, recently said he would work to reduce Chinese influence in Bangladesh. What does that mean?
I think it means that the US wants Bangladesh to rely less on Chinese capital and infrastructure development. This may suggest a willingness to bring US investment, including potentially from the US International Development Finance Corporation, into Bangladesh. There may also be a suggestion that the US will want to continue to push to complete a Boeing aircraft deal with Dhaka.
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