Though temporary, the Iran War truce is a relief for the world as a whole and for an oil import-dependent country like Bangladesh, in particular. Less than two hours before the expiry of the deadline set by US President Donald Trump to 'wipe out a whole civilization', Iran and the USA agreed to a conditional two-week truce through the mediation of Pakistan, a country acceptable to Iran, the USA, most Gulf countries and China. The US President, reportedly, agreed to 'suspend the bombing and attack against Iran for a period of two weeks' if Tehran agrees to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a very important shipping route through which one-fifth of world's oil cargo passes. And, the importance of this route is being felt badly by a host of countries including Bangladesh. Within hours of declaration of the ceasefire, the global oil market reacted positively and Brent oil price came down to US$97 from US$115 per barrel. Tehran, however, according to reports, has agreed to reopen Strait of Hormuz under its full military control.
With the Iran war starting to escalate in line with the whimsical actions of Donald Trump, it is not just oil, the global economy was bracing for a very difficult time ahead. The ceasefire, no doubt, is a starting point. Both the US and Iran, obviously, would claim their respective victory. But the truth is, the ceasefire is the first step for further negotiations. The world will be watching with keen interest the final outcome of the meeting between the USA and Iran, expected to be held in Islamabad, Pakistan. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said he agreed to a provisional ceasefire because 'we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives'. For its part, Iran has issued a 10-point plan that includes, among others, lifting of sanctions on Iran, complete cessation of war in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen and release of frozen Iranian funds and assets held by the US and a "full payment of compensation for reconstruction costs" that may run into a trillion US dollar.
It is difficult to guess at this moment the ultimate outcome of the next Friday's proposed meeting between the two warring parties. But many have started wondering what actually had prompted Trump to make a retreat. There is no denying that Trump gives a damn about what others outside the USA think about him or his actions. Actually, his own home turf has become heated and uncomfortable. The rising fuel cost and the growing uneasiness among the Republican vote bank and also within the honchos of his own party have forced him to change the course, it is widely assumed. President Trump is a man who goes by impulse in many cases. It is alleged that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a shrewd war-monger, has cashed in on this weakness and lured Trump into starting a full-scale war against Iran under various pretexts, the 'regime change' being the primary one. For future peace negotiations either with Iran or any other country in the Middle East, Netanyahu will continue to be a huge problem.
The future negotiations between the USA and Iran, the next one likely to be held in Pakistan, surely will face many hurdles. The USA might discover some issues in the Iranian plan that it would find hard to accept. Both countries at the moment are holding contradictory positions. In the past year, they held two rounds of negotiations but without any positive outcome. Rather, military tensions escalated in the region. The USA, instigated by Israel, imposed an unjust war on Iran and caused death and destructions that amounts to war crime. Trump must understand that the world has not bestowed on him the power and responsibility of changing a regime or kidnapping a sitting president or prime minister of any country. The sooner he acknowledges this fact the better.
