The escalating military tensions in the Middle East centred around Iran, Israel and the United States have sent shockwaves through the Bangladeshi economy, sparking a sharp rise in energy costs and leaving thousands of tons of export goods stranded.
As the conflict threatens the vital Strait of Hormuz, economists and business leaders warn of a multi-dimensional crisis involving fuel shortages, record-high shipping costs and a potential spike in domestic inflation.
Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association president Mahmud Hasan Khan said that all entrepreneurs were concerned about export and import in the Middle East conflict.
‘We are talking with the government and foreign buyers on export shipment, along with watching the situation,’ he said.
The same opinion was echoed by Muhammad Hatem, president of Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association, who said that export was also involved with import, adding that both needed a sustainable environment for smooth business.
Any kind of disruption in export-import or energy supply uncertainty will affect business severely, he said.
On Wednesday, global oil prices hit their highest levels since early 2025. Brent crude rose to US $82.53 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate climbed to $75.37.
For Bangladesh, which relies on the Middle East for nearly 90 per cent of its fuel imports, the stakes are high. The Strait of Hormuz serves as the gateway for one-fifth of the world’s oil and significant LNG supplies. Any prolonged disruption here directly impacts Bangladesh’s power generation, transport costs, and foreign exchange reserves.
The conflict has created a logistical nightmare at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport and Chittagong Port. Major airlines from Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and the UAE have suspended cargo operations from Dhaka. Over 1,200 tonnes of export goods, primarily readymade garments, are currently stuck at the airport.
Shipping lines, including the Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), have halted new bookings for Middle East-bound containers. Over 1,000 containers filled with frozen fish, processed food and plastic goods are stranded across various ports.
The ‘war premium’ is already being felt on the kitchen market. Importers report that the cost of transporting palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had jumped by $8-$10 per tonne.
’The war’s duration is uncertain, but the impact is immediate,’ says Mustafizur Rahman, a distinguished fellow at Centre for Policy Dialogue.
‘While the initial hiccup is in logistics, the long-term threat is energy security. We must prepare an emergency roadmap for alternative sourcing,’ he added.
The conflict exposes several critical vulnerabilities for Bangladesh, such as supply chain rerouting. Vessels are being forced to take the Cape of Good Hope route, adding 5,000 kilometres to journeys, significantly increasing freight charges and delivery times.
The textile industry faces delays in importing cotton from Western markets, while the plastic sector is struggling with blocked petrochemical shipments.
Beyond trade, the safety and stability of the millions of Bangladeshi expatriates working in the Gulf remains a looming concern for the country’s remittance inflow.
Business leaders and economists, including Selim Raihan of SANEM, have urged the government to engage in immediate tripartite consultations with researchers and traders.
While the government maintains that there are several weeks of fuel and grain reserves, experts argued that ‘strategic stockpiling’ and ‘source diversification’ were no longer optional. If the tensions in the Persian Gulf do not subside quickly, Bangladesh may face a period of forced austerity and heightened economic volatility.
